Markets

Daily Market Wire 25 June 2021

Lachstock Consulting, June 25, 2021

Markets closed mostly lower in overnight trading.

  • Chicago wheat September contract down US11.75c/bu to 652c;
  • Kansas wheat September contract down 6.25c/bu to 614.5c;
  • Minneapolis wheat September contract up 3c/bu to 805.25c;
  • MATIF wheat September contract down €2.25/t to €204.50/t;
  • Corn September contract down 1.75c/bu to 549.25c;
  • Soybeans September contract down 9.25c/bu to 1298.75c;
  • Winnipeg canola November contract up C$0.70/t to $738.60;
  • MATIF rapeseed August contract down €2.25/t to €505.25/t;
  • US dollar index unchanged at 91.8;
  • AUD firmer at US$0.758;
  • CAD weaker at $1.232;
  • EUR unchanged at $1.193;
  • ASX wheat July contract down A$4 to $290/t;
  • ASX wheat January 2022 down $1/t to $301/t.

International

Minneapolis wheat took a jump higher earlier in the session but only closed up 3 cents by the close after later-day selling pressure.

In US export news, two new-crop soybean flashes have been reported, 132,000 tonnes to China and 260,000t to unknown.

Rain across the US central corn belt has started to fall, with the latest models in the 5-75 millimetres plus range for Illinois and northern Indiana, but dropping off further into Ohio and north-east Iowa.  Some slightly cooler temperatures and little rain is on the forecasts for next week.

Markets are still worried about spring wheat weather in the US and Canada. Rain is forecast to hit parts of Saskatchewan, North Dakota and Montana into tonight. Plenty of analysts are racing to cut their crop estimates with the poor weather

The International Grains Council has increased its world newc-crop corn estimate by 9 million tonnes (Mt), almost all in China, to 1201Mt, and has trimmed its global wheat estimate by 1Mt to 789Mt.

Regular US export sales had wheat at 374,000t, corn at 310,000t for new crop mostly to destinations unknown and possibly China, soybeans at 47,000t of new crop with an additional 141,000t of current crop, and zero sorghum.

Otherwise, cash markets globally have been fairly quiet, and the futures boards have started to square up positions in preparation for next week’s USDA US area and stocks reports as we look for the next big directional trade.

Following on the private estimates out yesterday, early news survey estimates on US area are coming in at just under 38 million hectares (Mha) on corn, and 36Mha on soybeans.

In the Black Sea region, harvest is still slowly picking up, and warmer temperatures are helping to ripen some crops. However, there is the chance of rain across Black Sea cropping areas on outlooks into mid-July.

Australia

Domestic markets remained fairly quiet, and watching overseas boards and weather maps.

New South Wales yesterday had fairly widespread rain, with 10-20mm and more across parts of the central west as forecast.  Next week’s maps are taking a turn back to the drier side, with only a few coastal storms forecast, and not much on the 14-day outlook.

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