Winnipeg canola fell 3 per cent on Friday while other futures changed little; Friday’s settlements as follows;
- CBOT Wheat May contract was down 0.5c to 466
- Kansas wheat May contract down 2c to 445c
- Corn May contract up 2c to 378.25
- Soybeans May contract down 6.75c to 903.75c
- Winnipeg canola May contract was down C$14.30 to C$468.20 to 453.90
- MATIF rapeseed May contract down €1.75/t to €357.75
- Dow Jones down 460.18 points to 25,502.32
- Crude oil May contract down $0.94 to 59.04
- AUD down to 0.7080c,
- CAD down to 1.342,
- EUR down to 1.129.
Commentary on markets
US futures traded lightly mixed in a quiet Friday session there, with Chicago wheat closing down half a cent to 466¢, KC off 2 cents to 445¢, Minny +1¢ to 572 1/4¢, and Matif up half a euro to 189.5€ on the earlier close. Corn picked up 2¢ to 378 1/4¢, beans lost 7¢ to 903 3/4¢ and Matif rapeseed lost 2€ to 357.75€. Winnipeg canola was hammered through the session, closing down $14 to $453.9 amid a series of news headlines about the ongoing trade dispute between Canada and China. The Dow lost some 460 points on Friday, with markets focusing on global economic worries, and crude oil dropped ~90¢ to $59.0 on WTI and $67.0 Brent. The AUD is nominally weaker to 70.8¢, the EUR is trading at $1.129, and the CAD is also nominally weaker to $1.342. Brexit politics continue to drag on, with Prime Minister May surviving a leadership challenge in the UK on Sunday there – but no word on how they will manage to pass an expected third vote on an exit plan. If no vote passes on an exit plan, they’ll be out cold-turkey on April 12 – if they pass one that may be delayed until May 22.
Politics, this time canola hit
After revoking Richardson’s canola export license the other week, China has now done the same to all other exporters – effectively stopping the flow of canola. With the expansion of restrictions there, this has brought more news attention and some calls for the Canadian government to take a stronger stance in defense against the Chinese attempts to leverage trade as a political tool. So far there has been no significant response from the Canadian government though. Meanwhile, the USDA flashed 300 kmt of Chinese corn sales(providing some confirmation to rumors that had circulated the prior day amid strengthening basis in domestic corn markets there), but the overall US/China trade war continues to simmer . . .
Adding to our prior comments about Russian attempts to expand their wheat marketing, Saudi Arabia will reportedly decide on whether to accept Russian wheat in the next few months (bug damage on Russian wheat has been seen as a problem before). On the barley side there, a reminder that SAGO results should be out later tonight or some time tomorrow. Wheat harvest is picking up pace in India, with more expectations of good results there after some cooler/more moist weather through filling. Pakistani wheat is also reportedly in good condition and on track for a far better result this year than last.
US weather halts biofuels, paddock work
Damage estimates from the US floods continue to increase, and some 13% of US ethanol capacity has been idled amid logistical delays (both taking in corn and in shipping out ethanol). Fieldwork delays are still a significant concern, and some more moisture in the southern corn belt this week will do little the help with either situation.
Australia willing rain
Back locally, with Trevor landing up north we did see a localized showers through western VIC and southern NSW over the weekend, but only 5-10 mm of sprinkles for most. Rains are still on the forecast for later this week in southern Queensland – but again nothing significant for cropping areas in NSW and current models only at ~20 mm for the Downs (though we do recall that this was also the forecast the other week when they caught better rains).
Source: Lachstock Consulting