Markets

Daily Market Wire 25 March 2022

Lachstock Consulting, March 25, 2022

Wheat markets eased and canola gained.

  • Chicago wheat May contract down US20cents per bushel to 1085.75c/bu;
  • Kansas wheat May contract down 16.5c/bu to 1095c/bu;
  • Minneapolis wheat May down 6.5c/bu to 1082.75c/bu;
  • MATIF wheat May contract down €8/t to €376.50/t;
  • Black Sea wheat July contract down $4/t to $351/t;
  • Corn May contract down 9.5c/bu to 748.25c/bu;
  • Soybeans May contract down 18c/bu to 1700.75c/bu;
  • Winnipeg canola November 2022 contract up C$15.70 /t to $953.70/t;
  • MATIF rapeseed November 2022 contract up €1.25/t to €751.25/t;
  • ASX July 2022 wheat contract unchanged at $410/t;
  • ASX Jan 2023 wheat contract down $10/t to $400/t;
  • Dow Jones Industrials Average up 1pc;
  • AUD dollar firmer at US$0.751.

International

Nothing cures high prices like high prices. It would seem US wheat has found that level. Weekly US wheat export sales were reported 155,000t, well short of the 270,000t needed to reach the USDA full-year estimate.

The spike in the Chicago SRW nearby contract early this month gave plenty of incentive in the US for delivery of physical wheat against futures. May/Jul could end up going into delivery at a carry with every grain of receivable standard finding its way into the system.

Global focus now is on food inflation and shortages. The EU has allowed individual countries to reassess biofuel mandates and markets will enter an interesting phase. There is still a blending margin in many cases regardless of the mandate. Energy markets could price vegetable oils and corn out of the food channel. Europe will be the test case because the war has hit sunflower oil hard, vegetable oil balances appear extremely tight, Russia’s attacks on some of Ukraine’s key export hubs are damaging commodities infrastructure and it could be a long road until shipments fully recover.

Ports in Ukraine have been closed since the war began. Major grain export facilities and steel plants have been severely hit by shelling. They include a Bunge site in Mykolayiv on the Black Sea, and the Azovstal steel plant in Mariupol. Exports account for about 40pc of Ukraine GDP, including about US$8 billion wheat and corn, and $3.4 billion iron ore according to data from Observatory of Economic Complexity. Ukraine is seeking to open new routes by rail for selling goods such as crops, but volumes could be small. Food companies in Ukraine are focused on securing local supplies, hundreds of thousands facing hunger and scarcity of water and electricity.

Private consultancy APK-Inform yesterday estimated 2022 Ukraine grain production at 38.9 million tonnes (Mt), down 55pc from last season of which wheat down 54pc to 14.9Mt and corn production down 56pc to 18.5Mt. Grain exports in 2022/23 were pegged 32pc lower, at 29.9Mt, comprising 10Mt wheat and 19Mt corn.

Australia

Local wheat markets again were largely unchanged yesterday and liquidity was limited. Grower selling eased and buyers appeared comfortable with nearby coverage.

Barley bids in eastern Australia again ticked a dollar or two higher while the delivered Darling Downs market continued its feedgrains-driven strength.

Canola current crop markets were a touch softer in depot while delivered port was unchanged. New crop eastern Australian track bids were around $970-980/t.

Record monthly canola numbers are reported in the recent Lachstock canola supply demand report, but WA is a little behind schedule, struggling to keep up with the burden of export pace.

Victoria and NSW pace has picked up a lot in the past two months.

Scattered showers arrived in the past 24 hours in northern NSW and another front is pushing through the region this morning. More rain looms over Port Kembla this morning and will continue to play havoc on current export loading program.

 

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