Friday’s wheat market firmed. The US dollar index made further gains. Soybeans and canola eased more than 1 percent.

• Chicago December 2024 wheat up US7.25c/bu to 606.25c/bu
• Kansas December 2024 wheat up 9c/bu to 613.25c/bu
• Minneapolis December 2024 wheat  up 1.5c/bu to 683.5c/bu
• MATIF wheat December 2024 up €6.50/t to €223.75/t;
• Corn December 2024 down 1.5c/bu to 475.25c/bu;
• Soybeans November 2024 down 17.25c/bu to 1187c/bu;
• Winnipeg canola November 2024 down C$8.30/t to $652.20/t
• MATIF rapeseed November 2024 down €0.25/t to €453.75/t
• ASX May 2024 wheat down A$4.50/t to $325/t;
• ASX January 2025 wheat down A$6.50/t to $328/t
• ASX May 2024 barley unchanged at A$294.50/t;
• ASX January 2025 barley unchanged at A$296.30/t
• AUD dollar down 56 points to US$0.6514.

There has been a major escalation in the Black Sea with increasing strikes between Russia and Ukraine. The Ukrainian military claims it hit two large Russian landing ships off the Crimean Peninsula as well as other infrastructure used by the Russian navy. Russia has significantly escalated its air attacks against Ukraine in recent days in what it says is retaliation for a wave of Ukrainian strikes. Russia is also blaming Ukraine for the deadly terrorist attack in Moscow on Friday night despite the attack being claimed by ISIS-K, the Islamic State’s Afghan branch. 

Buenos Aires Grain Exchange reports that for the week ending 20 Mar, 2023-24 maize harvest was 4pc complete (5pc previous year), with conditions rated 79pc fair/excellent (83pc previous week, 42pc previous year). Fieldwork in the central and southern growing regions was hampered by heavy rainfall. Production forecast cut by 2.5Mt, to 54.0Mt, reflecting earlier hot conditions and incidences of disease and pest infestation in later sown crops in the centre and north. Sunflower seed harvest estimated at 59pc complete (64pc), with conditions rated 71pc fair/excellent (79pc, 79pc), and with below average yields reported in Buenos Aires and La Pampa. Production cut by 0.2Mt, to 3.6Mt, on hot and dry conditions during critical crop development stages. Soybean crop conditions rated at 84pc fair/excellent (84pc, 28pc), with just over one-third of the crop in the grain filling stage with optimal moisture conditions. 

FranceAgriMer reports that as at 18 March, 2024-25 durum planting was 93pc complete (100pc previous year) and spring barley 48pc complete (100pc). Common wheat crop rated 66pc good/excellent (66pc previous week, 94pc previous year), durum at 72pc (72pc, 92pc) and winter barley at 68pc (68pc, 93pc). 

SovEcon has revised up its 2024-25 wheat production forecast by 0.4Mt to 94Mt reflecting generally favourable conditions for the winter crop. Winter wheat production pegged at 68.2Mt, and spring wheat at 25.7Mt. 

US private exporters reported sales of 263kt of corn to Mexico, including 173kt during the 2023-24 marketing year and 90kt during the 2024-25 marketing year. 

Australia

The WA wheat market closed higher at the end of last week. Exporter demand continued for Kwinana port zone, with levels for APW1 increasing to A$370/t FIS, H2 to $380/t and H1 $390/t. The other port zones are currently bid at levels around $10/t under Kwinana. Feed barley levels eased across the week to $335/t FIS for Kwinana & Albany ports, and $345/t for Maxi1. Canola (CAN) values firmed to $690 – $700/t range FIS Kwinana, Albany & Esperance. New season canola (CAN) remained just above $700/t FIS, and new season wheat remained around $355/t FIS Kwinana. 

In the Eastern States, current crop canola values took a bit of a breather on Friday, back $5/t across the board. It has been a quite an impressive move over the past 1 month, with Vic canola port values moving from $580/t to $650/t. Port Kembla is currently pricing a $10/t premium. 

As predicted Qld picked up some big rainfall totals over the weekend, with the heavier totals in the southwest. Central NSW also picked up another 5-15mm to add to its weekly total. There is another widespread 15-50mm on the forecast for Qld this week, with parts of the southeast tipped to received up to 100mm. Most cropping regions in NSW are tipped to pick up less than 10mm, except for the northwest which is in line for 15-25mm. Vic looks like it will pick up less than 10mm and SA less than 5mm, while WA is forecast to have a dry week.