Daily Market Wire 25 May 2023

Lachstock Consulting, May 25, 2023

US wheat markets eased at least 2 percent. Corn gained again. The US dollar index made further gains as mirrored by the Australian dollar which eased another 1pc.

  • Chicago wheat December 2023 contract down US14.25 cents per bushel to 637.25c/bu;
  • Kansas wheat December 2023 down 23.5c/bu to 803.5c/bu;
  • Minneapolis wheat December 2023 down 21c/bu to 807.75c/bu;
  • MATIF wheat December 2023 down €4.25/t to €227.25/t;
  • Black Sea wheat December 2023 down US$4.25/t to $269/t;
  • Corn July 2023 contract up US9.75c/bu to 587.25c/bu;
  • Soybeans July 2023 contract up 2c/bu to 1324.5c/bu;
  • Winnipeg July canola contract down C$3.50/t to $698.10/t;
  • MATIF rapeseed August 2023 up €5.75 to €399/t;
  • ASX January 2024 wheat contract up A$6/t to $388/t;
  • ASX January 2024 barley contract up $9.50 to $335/t;
  • AUD dollar eased about 1 percent, 67 points, to US$0.6543.


Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin has signed a number of Memoranda of Understanding on his official visit to Beijing, including an agreement to deepen investment cooperation in trade services, an agreement on export of agricultural products to China, and another on sports cooperation. The agreements come amid pressure from the West to isolate Russia and after G7 leaders singled out both countries on a number of issues, including the war in Ukraine. Mishustin told Chinese President Xi Jinping in China on Wednesday Moscow and Beijing would push back against attempts by countries to use sanctions to “impose their will”. 

Soft Red Winter (SRW) wheat yields in Illinois are estimated at 97.12 bu/acre, exceeding USDA’s forecast of 78 bu/ac, according to Tuesday’s tour by the Illinois Wheat Association, based on 57 samples. That’s above last year’s average of 68.5 bu/acre and the state record of 79 bu/ac. SRW wheat accounts for about 15pc of total US wheat production. 

Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada revised down its 2023-24 canola production forecast by 0.1Mt, to 18.4Mt (18.2Mt previous year). All-wheat production forecast was increased by 1.5Mt, to 35.8Mt (33.8Mt previous year) and the barley production forecast was cut by 0.5Mt, to 9.5Mt (10.0Mt). 

A surplus of cheap wheat in China is replacing significant volumes of corn in its animal feed market, according to feed makers and analysts, curbing consumption of both corn and soymeal and potentially reducing demand for imports. China has cancelled more than 1.1Mt of US corn purchases in recent weeks as buyers wait for cheaper options (Brazil) later in the year. 

Rains are impeding soy and corn harvesting on the Pampas, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange said in a weekly report. Soy harvest is 78pc complete, lagging the average for this time of year by 14pc. The rain is seen as beneficial for drought-stricken areas and will help planting of the upcoming wheat and barley crops. 

South Korean flour mills reportedly purchased 135,000t milling wheat, including 50,000t from the US, 50,000t from Australia and 35,000t from Canada. 


Local current crop markets yesterday firmed again slightly. Wheat bids were up another buck or two, up country domestic homes were a touch stronger and more July-August demand was sniffing around for sellers. Canola bids on current and new crop lifted by $10/t but liquidity was still very small. 

There is more rainfall building on the forecast, with southern WA, SA, Vic and southern NSW now expecting 5-25mm. The BOM’s latest Climate Driver Update has maintained the projection that there is a 50 per cent chance of an El Niño developing this winter or spring and that they are still at “watch.” They noted that despite all international climate models indicating it is very likely that tropical Pacific Ocean temperatures will reach El Niño thresholds during the southern hemisphere winter, an atmospheric response is also required for an El Niño to be declared. Thus far, little shift has been observed in atmospheric ENSO indicators with trade winds and cloudiness patterns in the Pacific remaining indicative of ENSO-neutral conditions.


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