Markets

Daily Market Wire 25 November 2021

Lachstock Consulting, November 25, 2021

Chicago found some selling overnight.

  • Chicago wheat December contract down US19.25 cents per bushel to 836.75c/bu;
  • Kansas wheat December contract down 5.5c/bu to 873.25c/bu;
  • Minneapolis wheat December down 1.5c/bu to 1036.75c/bu;
  • MATIF wheat December contract down €5.25/t to €306.25/t;
  • Corn December contract down 0.75c/bu to 579.75c/bu;
  • Soybeans January contract down 6.5c/bu to 1266.5c/bu
  • Winnipeg canola January 2022 contract up C$5.50/t to $1030.20/t;
  • MATIF rapeseed February 2022 contract up €8.75/t to €691.25/t;
  • US dollar index was up 0.3 to 96.8;
  • AUD weaker at US$0.719;
  • CAD firmer at $1.266;
  • EUR weaker at $1.120;
  • ASX wheat January 2022 up A$3/t to $428/t;
  • ASX wheat January 2023 up $1/t to $411/t.

International

Chicago found some selling overnight falling 19.25usc/bu, Kansas shed 5.5usc/bu while Minni managed only to finish down 1.5usc/bu. Matif fell €5.25 while Black Sea wheat was quoted USD$0.50/mt higher. Corn went home relatively unchanged, only down 0.75usc/bu while China corn rallied 1%. Soybeans fell 7.5usc/bu, meal was off $4/st while oil snuck higher by 0.69usc/lb. Matif canola added €8.75/mt while Winnipeg rallied CAD$5.5/mt. The livestock sector in the US was one of the bigger daily gainers – live cattle added 1.73% while lean hogs rallied 1.79%. The Dow was unchanged, crude also basically unch and the AUD went home at 0.7194.

Russia’s Agriculture ministry is likely to reveal its plans for a grain export quota next month. While they have indicated the details are still be worked out it is clear they remain sensitive to domestic prices. This may incentivise the Russian “ dogmatic long”  to let some go. Interestingly there were reports last night that Russia sold some wheat into Mexico and while it is not unusual it has historically been a good indication that US values are a little punchy.

Thanksgiving Holiday will see markets closed on Thursday (US time) and generally run skeleton staff for the Friday.

China iron ore is on a run – since posting lows on 18 November values have rallied 23% and you now have to search hard to find stories relating to Evergrande. If their share price is the barometer they are still not out of the woods – starting the year at over HK$14 they were trading at HK$2.78 yesterday.

US jobless claims printed the lowest levels since 1969 fuelling a rally in the USD and forcing the AUD under 0.72.

Ethanol prices have jumped massively, up 160% this calendar year. This has kept the domestic bid for corn as ethanol producing margins remain solid.

The Ukraine has lifted its corn crop estimate by 40mmt, up 32pc from a year ago.

Australia

Wheat markets continued to firm yesterday with cash bids up $10-15/mt in the eastern states for APW. AGP was also firmer however the spread still remains at -$124 in Port Kembla zone.

Trade bids were also stronger for January-plus-carry into both export pathways and domestic homes. It is still a very sit tight market with very little grower selling activity unless the grain is in the bin as we see in WA with ASW1 trading around $340-345 levels and some protein in QLD and Northern NSW at $50-55 premiums for APH1 and APH2.

With SA, Victoria and NSW all receiving rainfall in the past 24hrs there will be very little harvesting action. Some growers in Northern NSW and Victoria got going for a short period yesterday before the rain hit. Growers are keen to go when they can to keep the program moving and calling in for extra headers in NSW.

 

Rainfall totals as per BOM in the 24 hours to 9am Thursday.

 

Coonabarabran 12mm

Condobolin 17mm

Temora 16mm

Barellan 59mm

Donald 25mm

Jeparit 19mm

Pinnaroo 5mm

Clare 4mm

Wudinna 9.2mm

.

 

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