Markets

Daily market wire 25 Oct 2016

Lachstock Consulting, October 25, 2016

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Wheat markets took a significant hit overnight with Chicago slipping 12c and Kansas falling 9c after the market cashed in at decent levels and sold up big.

This recent spiral sees December Chicago wheat return to familiar territory where it has spent significant time over the past few months.

Soybeans are the hero of the day after a rally of 9c on the back of an impressive palm oil market.

CBOT Wheat was down -12c to 402.5c, Kansas wheat down -9c to 412.5c, corn down -4.25c to 358c, soybeans up 10c to 1002.25c, Winnipeg canola up $C6.0 to $C508.1, and Matif canola down -€0.5 to €393.5. The Dow Jones up 77.32 to 18223.03 , Crude Oil down -0.05c to 50.47c, AUD up to 0.7601c, CAD down to 1.3343c, (AUDCAD 1.0142) and the was EUR up to 1.0875c (AUDEUR 0.6988).

On the whole, global wheat supplies are considerably higher than the current level of demand as a 24% stocks to use ratio looms for the 2016/17 crop year.

The U.S. continue to lose their competitive edge as the U.S. dollar continues to strengthen. Sales were pegged at 244.3k which is considerably less than market expectations of between 450k to 600k.

All eyes remain on Egypt as the GASC have lined up an early December slot. Their last attempt saw little interest with only 300k in offers.

Bean inspections reached a healthy 2.73 mil vs market expectations of 1.9-2.5 mil. Whispers of risk premiums in South America have once again surfaced in an attempt to counter inflationary fears after talk of massive bean yields continue to dominate the airwaves. Bean harvest progress has been pinned at 76% which is spot on average, as corn harvest is at 61% vs a 62% average.

Corn never really stood a chance after the weakness shown by wheat. Inspections were poor with a measly 541.5k vs market ideas of 900k to 1.1mil.

Winnipeg canola had a strong showing overnight with 53,615 contracts compared to 32,211 contracts traded on Friday. We noticed significant improvements in farmer selling on the back of an attractive price advantage as a result of large technical buying.

Domestically, QLD harvest is up and running in some parts after a week of warm sunny weather. An early indication of barley yields have been recorded between a solid 3.5-5mt/ha along with faba beans at 3mt/ha.

Regions of South East QLD can expect up to 25mm over the next eight days along with a forecast of less than 10mm in South West QLD. Northern NSW can expect nation wide highs in excess of 25mm with all other regions of the state looking at less than 10mm.

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