Offshore wheat futures gained one percent overnight. The Dow Jones Industrials Average eased 1pc.
- Chicago December 2024 wheat up US8.25c/bu to 662.25c/bu
- Kansas December 2024 wheat up 10c/bu to 670.75c/bu
- Minneapolis December 2024 wheat up 11c/bu to 717.75c/bu
- MATIF wheat December 2024 up €3/t to €237.50/t;
- Corn December 2024 up 3.5c/bu to 476.25c/bu;
- Soybeans November 2024 up 1c/bu to 1175.5c/bu;
- Winnipeg canola November 2024 down C$1.50/t to $653.70/t
- MATIF rapeseed November 2024 down €1/t to €464.50/t
- ASX May 2024 wheat untraded, previous close was A$348/t;
- ASX January 2025 wheat untraded, previous close was A$367.50/t
- ASX May 2024 barley untraded, previous close was A$320/t;
- ASX January 2025 barley untraded, previous close was A$330/t
- AUD dollar firmed 20 points to US$0.6518.
International
Chicago wheat futures increased for the sixth straight session amid concerns over Russian production. On 18 April, May-24 Chicago wheat printed a low of US$5.3425/bu – last night posted a close of USD$6.0225/bu.
Brazilian corn is in the heart of the pollination window and conditions are extremely dry. The key determinant of corn yield is overnight temp during the pollination window. Lower is better. This year’s safrinha crop is running 2-5 degrees above average and are set to be low 30’s for the next 10 days. Additionally, the dryness is showing no signs of abating. The crop did benefit from extensive falls a month ago but this is now long gone, and the next 15 days show little in the way of relief. Understandably, crop estimates are all over the place, but the USDA now looks like an outlier. Its full crop (first and safrinha) projection sits at 124 million tonnes (Mt) vs CONAB at 110.9Mt and Marcus Weather at 117.9Mt.
The US Hard Red Winter wheat belt is set to get some rainfall finally. Showers today and on Sunday should see falls of between 50-130mm.
Europe is cold. Northeastern France, Germany, Poland and parts of the Czech Republic saw temps fall to -1 to -5 degrees.
Some rain has fallen across the drier parts of the Russian winter wheat belt, but temps remain elevated. The forecast is divergent as some are suggesting that the back end of the forecast is showing over 50mm, while others forecast less than 10mm.
Russian wheat exports continue to outperform with many estimates seeing over 4.5mmt for April, a clear record for this time of the year.
Aussie interest rate curves are not pricing a rate cut now until Feb-25.
Australia
Anzac Day saw all markets closed for the day as we remembered and started punting two up as opposed to weather forecasts.
Wednesday’s local wheat markets were firmer following some of the offshore move, but overall basis was softer. ASX settled at A$350/t for July, down $1/t from previous day.
Sorghum harvest bounces along. Quality for the moment is better than expected. SOR1 shorts seem to be getting what they need. SOR1 is still pricing a hefty discount to wheat and barley.
Dry weather is forecast for SNSW and Victoria which is of growing concern as most of the canola crop is in and the cereals planting pace is off to a “jumpy” start.
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