Markets

Daily Market Wire 26 August 2021

Lachstock Consulting, August 26, 2021

Canola and corn continued to rise and wheat traded fractions lower.

  • Chicago wheat December contract down US6.75c/bu to 725.5c/bu;
  • Kansas wheat December contract down 2.25c/bu to 715;
  • Minneapolis wheat December contract down 2.75c/bu to 908c;
  • MATIF wheat December contract down €2.50/t to €244/t;
  • Corn December contract was up 6.5c/bu to 551.75c;
  • Soybeans November contract up 1c/bu to 1332.75c;
  • Winnipeg canola November contract was up C$16.10 to $914.40;
  • MATIF rapeseed November contract up €5.50/t to €577.25/t;
  • US dollar index down 0.1 to 92.8;
  • AUD firmer at US$0.728;
  • CAD unchanged at $1.259;
  • EUR firmer at $1.177;
  • ASX wheat September contract down A$5/t to A$360/t;
  • ASX wheat January 2022 down $5/t to $345/t.

International

In the wheat pits Chicago settled down -6.75 usc/bu closing at 725.5usc/bu, Kansas was -2.25 usc/bu lower to settle at 715usc/bu, while Minni softened -2.75 usc/bu to go out at 908usc/bu. Corn gained 6.5 usc/bu to go out at 551.75usc/bu while beans were up 1 usc/bu to settle at 1332.75usc/bu WCE canola rallied 16.1 CAD/mt closing at 914.4CAD/mt with Matif canola finishing higher by 5.5 Eur/mt. In outside markets the Dow Jones gained 39.24 points, crude was up 0.8 bbl the Aussie was 0.0018 points higher to settle at 0.72759, the CAD rallied 0.0002 while the EUR gained 0.0016.

Pakistan bought 160,000t, Turkey is tendering for 300,000t of milling wheat, Jordan bought 60,000t of milling wheat, Taiwan is tendering for 50,000t of milling wheat. The big one for the Aussie wheat trade is The Philippines are tendering for Sept-Oct. Given relative tightness in old crop it is hard to see the Aussie trade willing to take the risk. However, on paper at least, Australia is the cheapest wheat in the world.

In yet another example of the exposure of bear-spreading into delivery, the wet French harvest has manifested itself in futures market carnage. The Sep v Dec differential was trading at EUR-2.50/t on the 12th of Aug, by the 23rd of Dec it traded to a high of EUR$+35.50/t and on the close today it was pegged at EUR+1.25/t

Huge differences in rainfall across the Canadian growing belt have led to massive variation in estimates ahead of StatsCan report to be published next Monday. While there has been a history of subsequent revisions to the August report the market will pay attention to the numbers posted. Harvest would be around 40pc done on the cereals and canola.

The lack of China buying is becoming interesting. Is this simply gamesmanship on China’s part, was the crop bigger than we are assuming, or is it the wider crackdown on commodity speculation?

There were 80 new COVID-19 cases reported in Victoria. In the US it seems the Biden administration is likely to approve COVID-19 boosters at 6 months after the previous dose.

Australia

Local markets were again relatively unchanged yesterday. Kwinana APWMG saw bids at A$355/t FIS and Port Kembla APW track $343-345/t, while the spread to barley has been trading around $60-70/t under wheat in WA and along the east coast.

New crop canola rebounded yesterday with local domestic crush bids up $8-10/t pushing back to levels around the $900s per tonne delivered January 2022 plus carry. With canola crops largely in the flowering stage across the country, grower marketing has been quiet in the past week.

Old crop bids for wheat and barley continued to remain supportive, with a mix of consumers and exporters still on the buy-side for Sep-Oct delivery. In LSC’s latest Australian Export Vessel lineup report, August will be similar to July with another sub-3 million tonnes (Mt) combined wheat, barley and canola export number, with wheat at 1.7Mt. The logistical issues do not seem to be easing in a hurry, with border restrictions getting ever tighter.

ABARES next crop report is due out next week Tuesday, 9 September.

Weather maps continue to provide some relief for those wet areas through western Victoria leading into early next week and scattered showers of 5mm are forecast to fall along the east coast over the next 8-10 days.

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