Markets

Daily Market Wire 26 February 2020

Lachstock Consulting, February 26, 2020

Grains futures were firmer, canola weakened.

  • Chicago wheat March contract up 2.75¢/bu to 539¢;
  • Kansas wheat March contract up 2.75¢/bu to 455¢;
  • Minneapolis wheat March contract up 2¢ to 516¢;
  • MATIF wheat March contract up €0.25/t to €192.50/t;
  • Corn March contract up 0.25¢/bu to 372.5¢;
  • Soybeans March contract up 4.75¢/bu to 879¢;
  • Winnipeg canola March contract down C$1.90/t C$447.80/t;
  • MATIF rapeseed May contract down €1.75/t to €390.75/t;
  • Brent crude April contract down US$1.35 per barrel to $54.95;
  • Dow Jones index down 879 points to 27081;
  • AUD unchanged at at $0.66;
  • CAD unchanged at $1.328;
  • EUR firmer at $1.088.

Market news

Buyers stepped back to the table into the overnight and following day session, seeing a bit of value to be had after the sell off – Chicago ended up 2 3/4¢ to 539¢, KC +2 3/4¢ to 455¢, Minny +2¢ to 516¢, and Matif up a quarter euro to 192.5€.  Corn was up a quarter cent to 372.5¢ and beans were up 4 3/4¢ to 879¢ (though canola broke off – Winnipeg down $1.9 to $447.8, Matif -1.75€ to 390 3/4¢ with discussions ongoing about washed out Canadian canola sales to China pressuring the market.  Macros continued to fall though, with the DOW dropping 879 points and oil off another buck and a half to $49.9 WTI / $54.9 Brent.  Uncertainty is still the name of the game for global markets, and the continued acceleration of non-China coronavirus cases has everyone spooked.  The AUD’s trading right at 66¢, the CAD $1.328, and the EUR $1.088 – up slightly against the dollar amidst talk that the Fed might be forced to cut interest rates.

Weather in Brazil remains generally supportive for new crop there, though some heavy rains through today did bring localised flash flooding in parts of Parana.

Black Sea winterkill discussions remain very optimistic, with the mild conditions causing next to no concern.

Spring plantings are underway in parts of southern Ukraine, some in far southern Russia planting got underway the other week. There is hope for some spring moisture though current maps aren’t showing much yet.

Rains through the last two days across the southern plains of the US have brought half an inch plus to central parts of Kansas but only 2-3 tenths for some of the drier parts of the SW and Oklahoma Panhandle.  Some chance of follow up early next week, and in general conditions are looking better there.  Heavy rains on the map for the Ohio River valley though are starting to raise some renewed concerns about new season prevent plant and SRW quality risks.  We’re still only in Feb, but saturated conditions and repeat moisture have remained the name of the game for several months now.

Australia

Aussie markets continued to slip lower yesterday, following the board collapse, although the weaker dollar continues to give some support.  Values have started to stabilize though, and we seem to be finding a short-term floor on wheat.  Barley remains depressed, continuing to trade a hefty discount to wheat.  There’s yet another storm chance floating across the maps for later next week. While still a long way out on the models, there are chances of another inch or so in central NSW in some model runs.

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