Markets

Daily Market Wire 26 February 2021

Lachstock Consulting, February 26, 2021

Canola markets dumped another 4 per cent, smaller corrections flowed through wheat, corn and beans

  • Chicago wheat May contract down 9.75c/bu to 675.75;
  • Kansas wheat May contract down 10.5c/bu to 652.5;
  • Minneapolis wheat May contract down 7c/bu to 650.5;
  • MATIF wheat May contract down €1.25/t to €231.50/t;
  • Corn May contract down 7.25c/bu to 549.75;
  • Soybeans May contract down 18.25c/bu to 1407.5;
  • Winnipeg canola May contract down C$30/t to $735.20;
  • MATIF rapeseed May contract down €18.25/t to €466.25;
  • US dollar index up 0.1 to 90.2
  • AUD weaker at $0.791;
  • CAD weaker at $1.257;
  • EUR firmer at $1.219;
  • ASX wheat May contract up $1/t to 302;
  • ASX wheat January 2022 contract up $1.50/t to 306.50.

International

The board chop continued with almost all of previous day’s grain gains given up last night after disappointing export sales and board profit taking.

The next US stimulus bill will go to a tight vote in the US Senate tonight. It is expected to pass by the narrowest of margins, the Vice President as tie breaker.

Regular weekly export sales disappointed across the board with 0.17Mt wheat, 0.45Mt corn, 0.17Mt beans, a near zero milo sales figures and only a few small negative adjustments to old Chinese sales. Even though these data relate to sales for the week ending 18 February, over the Chinese New Year window, markets had hoped to see something better.

Two boats of existing sales were reported switched to Vietnam, one switched out of China, and the other switched out of unknown/likely China. Perhaps it was spot demand or part of a washout agreement on Chinese sales, but it spurred speculation either way.

The last few weeks have seen more reports of African Swine Fever in China resulting in new hog culls. There’s suggestion that the new variants may have more mild impacts, making them more complicated to detect and control.

China’s Ag Ministry has also come out and called for a 0.6 million acre increase in corn acres into 2021, which would add several million tons of local corn production if realized.

At the same time, there has been more reporting of Chinese buying interest for mid-summer US corn exports, though as with most of such reports there’s nothing confirmed.  Mexican demand is also sounding around.

Correction: Yesterday’s wire included a reference to India’s Agriculture ministry forecasting a 109 million tonnes (Mt) wheat . That statement for the moment is not corroborated. The local USDA post suggested a record wheat crop but left its figure unchanged from previously and unchanged from the WASDE estimate, which was 107.6Mt.

Friday is first notice day for March futures contracts.

Australia

Local markets still holding quiet with a little bid interest. The only real interest in buying wheat is where specific coverage is needed. Barley exporters this week mostly finished coverage for near-term vessels with the result that markets now are nearly dead across the east coast.

Rain forecasts for northern NSW have come in much as predicted, with fairly widespread 15-20+ mm and a number of spots pushing upwards of 50 mm.

Updated climate outlooks from the BOM were also out last night, with maps still calling for greater than 60 per cent chance of above average rainfall for NSW and QLD heading into planting but fairly average conditions elsewhere.

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