Markets

Daily Market Wire 26 July 2021

Lachstock Consulting, July 26, 2021

Corn fell 3pc, spring wheat fell 2pc and Friday’s US winter wheats continued their Thursday retreat, settling another 1pc lower.

  • Chicago wheat September contract down US8.25c/bu to 684c;
  • Kansas wheat September contract down 7.75c/bu to 646c;
  • Minneapolis wheat September contract down 20.25c/bu to 883.5c;
  • MATIF wheat September contract up €2/t to €212/t;
  • Corn September contract was down 17.25c/bu to 547.25c;
  • Soybeans September contract down 13.25c/bu to 1355.75c;
  • Winnipeg canola November contract was up C$2.10/t to $883.40;
  • MATIF rapeseed August contract up €3/t to €532/t;
  • US dollar index up 0.1 to 92.9;
  • AUD weaker at US$0.736;
  • CAD weaker at $1.258;
  • EUR unchanged at $1.177;
  • ASX wheat September contract down $0.30/t to A$314/t;
  • ASX wheat January 2022 down $1/t to  $314/t.

International

Weaker offshore grain markets across the board on Friday saw Chicago wheat down 8 1/4¢, KC -7 3/4¢, Minny -20.5¢, and Matif +2€ on the earlier close.  Corn dropped 17 1/4¢ and beans -13 1/4¢ (Matif +3€, Winnipeg +$2.1).  Macros saw equity markets bounce back for new highs on the S&P, with the DOW up 238 points and crude oil trading at $72.1 WTI / $74.1 Brent.  The AUD has slipped again to 73.6¢, the CAD $1.256, and the EUR $1.178 (with the dxy hitting 92.9).

US Secretary of the Treasury Janet Yellen called on the government to, yet again, raise the debt ceiling. The previous suspension of the ceiling is due to expire on 2 August 2021.  Most expect that the government will get something done this week.

A new US export sales flash had 100,000t new crop beans sold to Mexico.

Corn Belt weather maps are still bringing some light moisture across most of the area this coming week and into early next week, but models have pulled back on rain forecast for Iowa/Missouri.

Temperatures still forecast to be warm in the western Corn Belt but cooler to the east.

Meanwhile, Black Sea weather maps are holding dry across most of Ukraine and central Russia – good for wheat harvest but some had hoped for a little more moisture for corn areas.

Russian harvest was reported on Friday at 8.9 million ha of wheat, with another large step up expected after this weekend.

The spring wheat crop tour will start on Monday in Fargo, North Dakota and head westwards into Montana.  Some of the recent private trips around have suggested higher production than the last USDA estimate, so we’ll see how the tour does their magic.  Insurance adjusters are also appraising crops at the same time.

Drought monitor figures continue to show the stress across spring wheat areas, not that it matters for most with the crop already finishing filling and harvest in full swing. Droughty conditions are also expanding in parts of Iowa and Minnesota.

Friday’s US cattle on feed figures reported 11.3 million, down from 11.4 million last year and 11.7 million in June, following normal summer declines.  Large sale figures continue to be reported across southern Canada and the western US in this drought though – with the tight fodder situation encouraging herd liquidation and putting pressure on cash markets.

Australia

Fairly quiet end to the week locally, with a few domestic users looking for parcels but limited volume.

Nice light rain fell right across the east coast over the weekend, and weather maps still are very solid for WA this week, 15-25+ mm forecast in the Wheatbelt.

Congratulations to all those competing in the Olympics – and especially the Women’s freestyle relay team on their gold..

 

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