Daily Market Wire 26 July 2023

Lachstock Consulting, July 26, 2023

The oilseeds eased overnight. Wheat, the US dollar index and the Dow, marked time. Brent crude gained a little.

  • Chicago wheat December up US3.25 cents per bushel to 780.75c/bu;
  • Kansas wheat December down 4.5c/bu to 920.75c/bu;
  • Minneapolis wheat December down 2.5c/bu to 942c/bu;
  • MATIF wheat December down €1.25/t to €266/t;
  • Black Sea wheat December down US$1.50/t to $247.25/t;
  • Corn December down 3c/bu to 565.25c/bu;
  • Soybeans November down 4.5c/bu to 1420c/bu;
  • Winnipeg November canola contract was down C$6/t to$824/t;
  • MATIF rapeseed November 2023 down €8.50/t to €478.50/t;
  • ASX January 2024 wheat up A$8/t to $411/t;
  • ASX January 2024 barley gained A$3.70/t to $322/t;
  • AUD dollar gained 52 points to US$0.6792


It appears that Russia has failed to severely damage a key Danube port in their Monday strike. Reni was operating at maximum capacity on Tuesday, with seven ships due to enter, according to a Romanian official, who is responsible for ship piloting in the area. 

According to the EU Agriculture Commissioner, the European Union should consider using its funds to support the cost of transiting Ukrainian grain through its member states, “I will present this position in the commission that we should find a solution on how to support the transport costs using the EU money,” he told reporters in Brussels. This was after he met agriculture ministers from Poland, Hungary, Slovakia, Romania and Bulgaria on the sidelines of an EU ministers meeting earlier on Tuesday to discuss the transit of Ukrainian grain through their territories.

The latest EU MARS update notes that owing to prolonged dry conditions in western, central and northern Europe, as well as in eastern growing areas of Romania, coupled with above normal temperatures in some areas, 2023-24 yield outlooks for spring barley, durum and sunflowerseed have been adversely impacted. However, productivity potential for other crops remains in line with, or are slightly above average. Heatwaves in southern areas, notably in Spain and Portugal, as well as in northern Italy, have negatively impacted summer crops, likely resulting in irreversible yield losses. Elsewhere, heavy precipitation was noted in Bulgaria, Romania, Slovenia, Croatia and Hungary, leading to harvesting delays and reduced grain quality. The 2023-24 common wheat yield is estimated at 5.8t/ha, down 2pc from June, but similar to the 5-year avg. Winter barley unchanged at 5.9t/ha (2pc above avg) and spring barley at 3.6t/ha (-3pc from June, 14pc below avg). Maize at 7.5 t/ha (-1pc from June, 1pc above avg), rapeseed at 3.2 t/ha (-3pc from June but 3pc above avg) and sunflowerseed at 2.1t/ha (-4pc from June and 5pc below average).

France’s soft wheat crop is expected to rise by nearly 4pc from last year helped by June showers ahead of harvesting, according to the farm ministry. The ministry forecast the crop at 35Mt compared with 33.69Mt last year. 

Crop consultant Michael Cordonnier lowered his expected US corn yield 1 bu. per acre to 174 bu. due to limited rainfall over the past week and continued limited rainfall in the forecast. Temperatures have turned hot as well, further pressuring the crop, especially in areas both hot and dry. Dr Cordonnier kept his soybean estimate unchanged at 50.5 bu. per acre, though retains a neutral to lower bias in both crops. He estimates corn production at 15.01 billion bu. and soybean production at 4.17 billion bu. 

SovEcon estimates that as of 20 July, only 14pc of the planted areas in Russia had been harvested, compared to 22pc during the same period last year. Harvest progress is slow due to extensive rainfall. Over the past two weeks, these regions have received up to 150pc of the typical amount of rainfall. The slow pace of harvesting, combined with damp conditions, may result in lower yields due to lodged crops and diminished quality. The slow release of Russian wheat onto the domestic market could impact the pace of Russian wheat exports, which are currently at record-high levels. 

Japan’s MAFF is seeking to buy a total of 123,770 tonnes of food-quality wheat from the United States, Canada and Australia in a regular tender


Local markets rallied yesterday on new and current crop wheat with most bids up A$10/t over the day. Some buyers pulled back a few bucks late in the day as tonnage limits got filled. ASX wheat Jan24 closed up $8/t at A$411/t.

The July line ups are currently showing 3.76Mt of total grain on the shipping stem down from 3.85Mt last week. Wheat is at 2.7Mt down slightly from 2.8Mt, Barley is unchanged at 386kt, Canola is showing 318kt down from 363kt and Sorghum is showing 322kt up from 300kt. Average wait times at Australian ports are variable. Brisbane QBT, Geraldton and Thevenard saw a decrease in wait time, while Albany, Esperance, Kwinana, Mackay and Port Lincoln wait time increased. There are currently 12 vessels anchored and 10 loading at Australian ports.


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