Grain and oilseeds futures closed firmer on Monday;
- Chicago wheat September contract was down 2.5c/bu to 540;
- Kansas wheat September contract was up 0.75c/bu to 478.25;
- Minneapolis wheat September contract up 3.75c/bu to 557;
- MATIF wheat September contract down €3.75/t to €180
- MATIF rapeseed August contract was up €2.50/t at €370
- Winnipeg canola November contract down $C9/t to $C456.10
- Corn September contract up 1.25c/bu to 453;
- Soybeans November contract down 6.25c/bu to 926.5;
- Crude oil August contract down US$0.07/barrel to $57.83
- Dow Jones down 179.32 to 26,548.22
- AUD down to 0.6940
- CAD unch 1.318
- EUR down to 1.136
Grain markets saw mixed moves overnight in the US, with small shifts across the board as markets prepare for this Friday’s USDA reports. Chicago wheat gave up two and a half cents to 540¢, KC three quarters of a cent to 476.5¢ (off another cent and three quarters as of writing), Minny picked up 3.75¢ to 557¢, and Matif wheat gave up a quarter of a euro on the earlier close to 183.5€. Corn picked up a penny to 453¢ and beans gave up six to 908 ¾¢. Meanwhile, Winnipeg canola was slammed down hard – dropping $9 to $456.1 (matif rapeseed off a euro and a quarter to 366.25€). Lachstock does not see a single defined reason for the Winnipeg move, but the mix of a fundamentally bearish oilseeds complex (even with lower bean acres) and the recent beneficial weather in Canada all came into play with some position liquidations. Meanwhile, crude up is up sharply with WTI +$1 to $58.9/barrel (Brent up 70¢ to $65.8) amid the ongoing escalation of words between Iran and the US – and compounded by a much bigger-than-expected draw in US crude oil inventory in stocks data published last night. The DOW gave up some 179 points amid the economic uncertainty implicit in the global politics, and the AUD is trading at 69.4¢ (with the CAD at $1.318 and the ERU at $1.136). Trump/Xi meetings are still to happen later this week, so be wary of headlines there – at this point it appears most likely that we will hear positive comments but see little action.
The oven remains on in Europe, with headlines noting the chance of mid 40 degree days in France later this week as the heatwave expands into the weekend. The impact of this heat is still being debated across the market (with some recent firmness in cash markets being attributed to the concerns) – and is likely to continue to drive headlines through the rest of the week as forecasts are changed. Much of the impacted wheat is almost fully mature already in the BSEA, but corn crops are at risk there and more northern parts of the EU are less advanced. Russia’s weather department has reportedly commented that they do not see a crop impact. Back in the US, the problems of the cold/wet spring on row crops are still being assessed, but most are waiting for this Friday’s USDA acreage report to hopefully provide some more directed guidance on possible losses – reportedly there was a reasonable amount of very late planted corn/beans with the associated yield risks there, but just how much will that be? Lots of speculation but no-one has a very definitive answer yet. Down in South America the Brazilian safrinha harvest continues to pick up pace, with estimates about 20% complete there. Export line-ups are set for a record June export program, and the crop remains very competitive on the export market.
Lachstock has been on the ground some through southern and central NSW the last few days, and notes that much of the crop we saw north of Wyalong was still in acceptable condition. Fields were mostly delayed by 2-3 weeks relative to “normal”, and will need good weather through the coming weeks, but at this point the terrible areas were limited. To that note, BOM maps are starting to show some more scattered moisture across southern NSW off the storm moving across this weekend. Coverage is still very poor for central and northern NSW, but there are chances of 10-20 mm across much of the Riverina.