Markets

Daily Market Wire 26 June 2020

Lachstock Consulting, June 26, 2020

Most futures were lower. We rolled CME quoted months today.

July contract activity is drawing to a close; now quoting the September month

  • Chicago wheat September contract up US2.5 cent per bushel to 488.25c;
  • Kansas wheat September contract down 2c to 437.75c;
  • Minneapolis wheat September contract down 5.25c to 519c;
  • Corn September contract down 6.5c to 320.5c;
  • Soybeans September contract down 1.75c to 863.75c;
  • Winnipeg canola November contract down C$2.40 per tonne to $469.10;
  • MATIF wheat September contract up €0.25/t to €177.25;
  • MATIF rapeseed August contract down €2.25/t to €374.75;
  • Brent crude August contract up US$0.74 per barrel to $41.05;
  • Dow Jones index up 300 points to 25746;
  • AUD firmer at $0.6888;
  • CAD weaker at $1.3640;
  • EUR weaker at $1.1220.

Markets

Cash wheat buying emerged in US markets overnight, led by interest in Soft Red Winter (SRW) wheat. Conjecture over what drove it seemed to settle on some short term demand before harvest proper arrives. Regardless, it revealed how twitchy the market is, not unique for this time of the year with July option expiry tonight and the significant June 30 stocks and acreage report out next week. Food services protein demand amid COVID is back in focus. The corn market is clearly nervous that the recent increase in COVID cases throughout the US may lead to another round of lockdowns and subsequently stifle restaurant meat demand. Woolworths in Australia is reinstating limits on some products such as toilet paper in Melbourne supermarkets.

The AUD seems comfortable trading in a tight range, but it’s only a matter of time before it breaks out. The USD has become the barometer for daily COVID infection rates given the double-edged sword of the spike in cases and the massive increase in testing. How little it takes to move a whole market.

There is little in weather news to get excited about, aside from small pockets of dryness. Queensland is getting airplay on offshore wires which shows how benign global conditions are. After showing some signs of moisture stress the US corn belt has managed to find some rain and, while temperatures are expected to be above normal for the next 15 days, there isn’t any real concern at the moment. Maybe it’s a little too wet in the SRW belt but, once again, nothing really to see here.

Australia

As we come to the end of another week, new crop trade-to-trade cash values were back a fraction yesterday. ASX wheat Jan 21 was down $1/t with small volume trading and that contract settled at $284/t. Multi-grade grower bids for new season wheat and barley were relatively unchanged across the port zones. 20/21 canola bids were off $3-4/t into the domestic crush homes, while track values were also softer from the previous trading day. This week as been another up and down week with values following currency moves, demand and the confidence in crop conditions. However, we still have a long way to go till harvest although it feels like it goes by very quickly we still need to get through the important parts of the growing season.

 

 

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