Markets

Daily Market Wire 26 November 2021

Lachstock Consulting, November 26, 2021

Thanksgiving Holiday in the US shut exchanges. Limited quotes are shown below.

  • Chicago SRW wheat market shut;
  • Kansas HRW market shut;
  • Minneapolis market shut;
  • MATIF wheat December contract down €0.75/t to €305.50/t;
  • Corn market shut
  • Soybeans market shut
  • Winnipeg canola January 2022 contract up C$3.20/t to $1033.40/t;
  • MATIF rapeseed February 2022 contract down €4.75/t to €686.50/t;
  • US dollar index was unchanged at 96.8;
  • AUD weaker at US$0.716;
  • CAD weaker at $1.268;
  • EUR firmer at $1.122;
  • ASX wheat January 2022 down A$1/t to $427/t;
  • ASX wheat January 2023 down $6/t to $405/t.

International

It was a quiet night in offshore markets with the US knee-deep in turkey and football. Matif wheat was €0.75/mt lower, Matif canola €4.75/mt lower. Winnipeg canola rallied C$3.20/mt. Malaysian palm oil put on MYR$11/mt, crude oil fell USD$0.36/bbl and the Aussie weakened to 0.7189.

The AUD is flirting with the September lows as the USD continued its push higher. Technically the Aussie looks to test the Aug low of 0.7106 as the market lowers the likelihood of a nearby rate increase.

Bloomberg is predicting China car and house sales to fall for their thid straight month in November. While exports have been solid and will partially offset the property pull back, domestic demand was stagnant. Iron ore’s recent run stumbled slightly in China with reports that steel mills in northern China have received government notices to limit production for the Winter Olympics.

Agricultural multinational retailer Nutrien announced plans to build four massive blending facilities in Brazil that will double its fertiliser capacity in the country. Consistent with expansion plans specific to Brazil (world #4 fertiliser consumer) Nutrien is on target to deliver 1.2mmt of fertiliser in Brazil through 2021.

A combination of a weaker Ringgit and higher soyoil prices have helped keep palm oil near the upper end of the range. While the market will be sensitive to export pace given the threat of wider lock downs in Europe the independent shippers indicate global demand is still strong.

Scientists in South Africa are studying a recently identified new coronavirus variant of concern. Called B.1.1.529 until a Greek letter is assigned by the WHO carries an unusually large number of mutations seen, so far, in almost 100 cases, some of whom are fully vaccinated.

Global milling wheat consumers are desperately watching the Australian weather maps as their alternatives look bleak. With the northern hemisphere balance sheet not reset until next June every mt Australia doesn’t export becomes increasingly hard to source.

Australia

With minimal harvest action yesterday across South Australia and the east coast, we saw the cash boards open up firmer on wheat by $4-8/mt, with most wheat grades pushing stronger. WA wheat values were relatively unchanged. Publicly reported bids were APW bid $435 and ASW1 bid $337 to the grower in Kwinana zone. While trade markets were a touch softer on the bid side over the day the ASX market, that has come out the blocks hard all week, was sluggish to start the day. But it then found a level to trade late in the day, around $427 on the January contract.

Barley markets were relatively unchanged on the cash boards as also in the trade markets. Export demand continues to flow. Jordan, for example, last bought 120,000 tonnes of feed barley at an average price of $332 USD CFR LH March FH April shipment period. Provided sellers have export slots, Australian barley is still well priced into destination business around the globe.

Canola markets bounced back up again with a $15/mt move on the grower cash bid boards. Canola harvest continues to move at a snail pace along the east coast due to the weather. WA harvest pace increased, with CBH receivals earlier in the week to Tuesday 23 November totalling over 2.23Mt.

More rain continues to fall in NSW as expected. It is the focal point in the market wanting to assess quality, and to know how much grain can be salvaged, where it is, and when will growers get back on paddocks.  It is a frustrating time for the market and even more so for growers.

 

Grain Central: Get our free daily cropping news straight to your inbox – Click here

HAVE YOUR SAY

Your email address will not be published.

Your comment will not appear until it has been moderated.
Contributions that contravene our Comments Policy will not be published.

Comments

Get Grain Central's news headlines emailed to you -
FREE!