Markets

Daily Market Wire 26 October 2021

Lachstock Consulting, October 26, 2021

Canola gained 2pc. Wheat was drawn firmer. Corn stayed put.

  • Chicago wheat December contract up US3.5c/bu to 759.5c/bu;
  • Kansas wheat December contract up 3.75c/bu to 777.75c/bu;
  • Minneapolis wheat December up 14c/bu to 1027c/bu;
  • MATIF wheat December contract up €2/t to €282/t;
  • Corn December contract unchanged at 538c/bu;
  • Soybeans November contract up 16.75c/bu to 1237.25c/bu;
  • Winnipeg canola November contract up C$19.10/t to $948.80/t;
  • MATIF rapeseed November contract up €10.50/t to €685/t;
  • US dollar index was up 0.2 to 93.8;
  • AUD firmer at US$0.749;
  • CAD weaker at $1.238;
  • EUR weaker at $1.161;
  • ASX wheat January 2022 up A$3/t to $338/t;
  • ASX wheat January 2023 up A$2/t to $358/t.

International

It was a quieter start to the week in the US, although wheat markets continued to inch slightly higher – Chicago up 3.5¢, KC +3 3/4¢, Minny +14¢, and Matif +2€ on the earlier close.  Corn settled unchanged at 538¢ and beans +16 3/4¢ (Matif +10.5€, Winnipeg +$19.1).  Crude oil was mixed with WTI trading to $83.8 WTi / Brent $86 and the DOW gained another 64 points.  The AUD has firmed back up to 74.9¢, the CAD $1.238, and the EUR $1.161 with the dxy at 93.8.

The December contact oat futures traded up limit overnight, but since H (March contract) didn’t hit limit there’s no expanded limit for tomorrow’s trade and it remains at US25¢/bu on the outrights.  Lachstock had to double check the rulebook.

In US crop progress figures winter wheat planting lifted to 80pc. Harvest progress in corn is 66pc, soybean harvest 73pc and milo harvest 71pc, all about as expected.

Regular weekly export inspections had corn 0.5Mt, soybeans 2.1Mt, three quarters of which was to China, wheat just 0.14Mt and 0.080 milo of which 0.071Mt to China.

ADM that they will shift up to 900 million gallons of ethanol into production of sustainable aviation fuel. The production is intended to begin in 2025. There is plenty of time for the market to adjust.

Morocco suspended duties on wheat import from the start of November. It is normal practise to impose duties around the local wheat harvest to protect domestic prices to farmers.

Black Sea weather maps are continuing to attract attention. There is a better outlook for parts of Ukraine into early November, but still next to nothing for the Russian winter wheat areas.

Markets are still looking for the next story to come because, aside from present combination of board rally and continued weather concerns on wheat, the next WASDE is two weeks away.

Australia

BOM maps still are expanding the east coast rain forecast for northern NSW later this week. Rain forecast is shrinking down south, excluding the Western Districts in Victoria. The extended run maps remain very wet across the coast, forecasting a widespread 2″ or so.

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