Wheat markets eased at least one percent. Rapeseed firmed 2 percent canola gained a fraction.
- Chicago wheat down US12c/bu to 568.5c/bu;
- Kansas December wheat down 14c/bu to 649c/bu;
- Minneapolis Dec wheat down 7.5c/bu to 720.75c/bu;
- MATIF wheat Dec down €2.50/t to €232/t;
- Black Sea wheat has not quoted since 11 August;
- Corn December down 4c/bu to 480c/bu;
- Soybeans May 2024 down 3.75c/bu to 1335.25c/bu;
- Winnipeg canola May 2024 up C$4.50/t to $708.70/t
- MATIF rapeseed May 2024 up €10/t to €440.50/t;
- ASX January 2024 wheat down A$4/t to $392/t;
- ASX January 2024 barley down A$7/t to $323/t;
- AUD dollar down 47 points to US$0.6309
EU leaders are meeting in Brussels today for their two-day Leaders’ Summit where they are expected to back the UN call for a humanitarian pause that would allow more aid deliveries into Gaza. President Biden has said that the US is working with partners in the region to facilitate aid getting into Gaza. The UN says Gaza needs at least 100 aid trucks a day; only 62 trucks have arrived since Saturday.
Black Sea market analyst SovEcon reported that as of 25 October, the volume of Russian outstanding wheat sales has decreased to 1.6Mt. This marks the lowest level since the beginning of June. Sales continue to decline amid government recommendations against selling wheat at current global market prices. Amidst falling sales, wheat prices have also declined. By the end of last week, the price of Russian 12.5pc protein wheat fell by US$7/t to $232/t FOB, according to SovEcon’s price monitoring.
Russia’s grain harvest is seen at 140Mt (135Mt previous est.), which would likely be the second highest ever, according to its Ag Minister, including wheat at around 93Mt (90Mt previous estimate).
Argentina’s Ministry of Economy has announced that the “soy dollar” preferential exchange rate scheme has been extended to include all agricultural products and will remain in place until 17 November 2023. Under the scheme, crushers can use 30percent of export revenues in foreign exchange freely, while the balance would be exchanged at an official rate of ARS365 per US$.
Argentina’s Ag. Ministry reports that September soybean crush was 1.8Mt, compared to 2.8Mt in September last year, with year to date at 21.5Mt (28.5Mt previous year)
Brazil’s ANEC estimates October soybean exports at 6.1Mt (3.6Mt previous year) and maize at 8.2Mt (6.2Mt).
According to APK-Inform (citing state weather forecaster) Ukraine has seen a turn to warmer, wetter weather during the second half of October which has improved conditions for the development of 2024-25 winter crops, with moisture reserves significantly replenished.
US private exporters reported sales of 126,000 tonnes of soybeans to China during the 2023-24 marketing year.
Canola values were the poor cousin yesterday as they followed the offshore moves lower. Markets were strong on Wednesday night, so we watch today to see if we bounce back as harvest starts to roll in style. The ASX eastern Australia Jan 24 wheat contract settled at $392/t which is $10/t lower than a week ago as harvest momentum adds pressure.
Line ups data show that there is currently 2.3Mt of total grain on the stem for October, unchanged from last week, with wheat currently sitting at 1.19Mt, barley 693kt, canola 383kt and sorghum 40kt. Grain port congestion is mixed with wait times better in Geelong and Kwinana but longer in Geraldton and Wallaroo, while Port Lincoln remains the same. Overall the maximum wait time is less than 8 days; there are 8 vessels anchored and 8 loading at Australian grain ports.