Daily market wire 26 September 2017

Lachstock Consulting, September 26, 2017

Overnight markets:

Higher for grains, mixed for oilseeds.
  • CBOT Wheat was up 4.5c to 454c,
  • Kansas wheat up 3.75c to 454c,
  • Corn up 0.25c to 353.75c,
  • Soybean down -12.75c to 981.75c,
  • Winnipeg Canola up 0.30$C to 501.8$C, and
  • Matif canola up 1.75€ to 370.5€.
  • Dow Jones down -53.5 to 22296.09
  • Crude Oil up 1.47c to 52.13US$,
  • AUD down to 0.793c,
  • CAD up to 1.237c, (AUDCAD 0.981)
  • EUR was down to 1.184c (AUDEUR 0.669).


Soybeans were under pressure from technical resistance at 995 in the Jan, plus rain forecasts in Brazil that eased their recent production concerns. Soymeal was $4.90/tonne lower for October, while bean oil was also lower down 21 points. Harvest progress reported by the USDA at 10% complete vs. 12% average for this time of year. Export inspections came in at 1.03mmt, which is almost 3 times higher than the same period in 2016. Year to date exports are tracking 33% of last year.


Corn found support from the wheat market and repositioning of the bean/corn spread. Rallies in corn need to be treated with skepticism, as there is still a monstrous carryout to churn through. There are some ideas that corn demand will increase because feed wheat out of the black sea will not get stem space due to greater protein wheat demand. Even if this is the case, there is ample supplies in South America to fill this gap and it needs to seen to be believed.


Canola finished slightly higher with average volumes traded. Canola has been supported by attractive biofuel margins in the US that is prompting demand for Canadian oil. US demand has increased for canola seed to crush, as well as imported canola oil. Basis for imported canola oil into the US has rallied to a point where it is a more attractive sell then selling canola oil to china.


Wheat was stronger, showing the beginnings of technical momentum, breaking and closing thought the key 450 level. Supporting factors were stable cash values in Russia (now in the $190’s for 12.5% pro), plus revised production and export ideas for Australia. Implied vol in Dec SRW went out at 19.5%. The session started off with some selling pressure due to good rainfall in HRW planting areas, though it found support from the reality of a sub 20mmt aussie crop combined with ideas that the Canadian wheat market is oversold. After the close planting progress was announced in wheat at 24% vs. an average of 28%.


Aussie weather features nothing of significant from a moisture perspective, while temps remain mild, with no suggested frost risk in the next two days. The mild temperatures are a positive, but we really need to see some rainfall in Northern Vic and NSW in the next 10 days to prevent crops declining further. Cash markets are incredibly strong, with the only major downside influence being reduced export demand, though the jury is out on how low we can get on wheat, with most confident in exports between 12-14 mm.

Source: Lachstock Consulting


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