Markets

Daily Market Wire 26 September 2022

Lachstock Consulting, September 26, 2022

US wheat markets fell 3pc. Corn and soybeans fell 2pc, soybean oil fell 4pc. In macro markets the US dollar posted fresh two decade highs. Brent crude fell 5pc.

  • Chicago wheat December contract down US30.25 cents per bushel to 880.5c/bu;
  • Kansas wheat December contract down 29c/bu to 950.5c/bu;
  • Minneapolis wheat December contract down 28.5c/bu to 949.25c/bu;
  • MATIF wheat December contract down €3/t to €346.25/t;
  • Black Sea wheat December contract down $3.25/t to $323.75/t;
  • Corn December contract down 11.5c/bu to 676.75/bu;
  • Soybeans November contract down 31.25c/bu to 1425.75c/bu;
  • Winnipeg canola November 2022 contract was down C$0.90/t to $818.70/t;
  • MATIF rapeseed November 2022 contract up €1/t to €606.75/t;
  • ASX Jan 2023 wheat contract up A$4/t to $436/t;
  • ASX Jan 2023 barley contract down A$6.10/t to $316.40/t;
  • AUD dollar weaker at US$0.652.

International

Markets were lower across the board on Friday night as macros weighed on commodity markets. The US Dollar hit fresh 20-year highs as the bullish interest rate story just will not crack. Throw out your year 10 economics textbook amid strange behaviours by central banks, with the Bank of England hiking rates while the government cuts taxes. 

The referendum vote is underway which covers roughly 15pc of the Ukraine. Meanwhile Odessa was struck by a number of drones which, once again returns the focus to the export corridor. The reality is, Russia is swimming in wheat but has so far underwhelmed when it comes to export pace. So many challenges for the exporters – no ability to predict the export tax and a strong Ruble would be enough, let alone the fact the country is at war.  

French corn is around 26pc harvested and was rated at 43pc good-to-excellent compared with a rating last year of 89pc good-to-excellent. 

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission Commitment of Traders report indicates SRW wheat is basically in the middle of the range. Of the client segments, the Managed Money + Other Reportable category was slightly short. Corn positions are close to record long for this time of year. Live cattle spec positions are as short now as they have been in recent history. 

In Australia-related trade, The Philippines lifted a cargo of Aussie feed wheat. It has been quiet this year, compared with last season when demand was strong, particularly in the red wheat growing areas of Victoria.  With the forecast still extremely wet throughout the east coast, feed wheat homes will be sought after. 

Australia

Last week’s public holidays had cash markets quiet. Clear Grain Exchange continued to be active on Friday. 

Grower sellers are cautious new crop sellers, wary of weather risk. Forecast maps don’t seem to let up here, with eastern Australia set for another 25mm-plus rain across majority of the cropping belt. Growers are still applying fungicide sprays and some on fourth application the cost of which continues to chew into gross margins. 

Export pace for September is 3.24Mt total grains on the stem (3.33Mt last week). Wheat is 2.07Mt, barley dropped to 634,000t (674,000t last week). Canola is unchanged 260,000t and sorghum is unchanged at 270,000t. 

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