International

Black Sea market analyst SovEcon estimated that as of late September only 8.3 million hectares (Mha) of winter grains had been sown, compared to 9.3Mha at the same time last year. This marks the lowest level since 2013. It noted that over the last 30 days, less than 20pc of the normal rainfall has fallen in the European part of Russia. The dry weather is limiting sowing and poses a threat to crops already sown. In the next two weeks, weather models forecast continued dry conditions in the Volga and Central regions, with slightly wetter weather in the South. Given the widespread moisture deficiency, it is highly likely that crops will enter winter in poor condition. The Volga region, where the vegetation period ends earliest and frosts begin first, is particularly at risk. 

Planting in Ukraine is estimated at 944,500ha, down from 1.1Mha by late September last year including wheat at 878,800ha (1Mha previous year) and winter barley at 45,000ha (74,000 ha). Winter rapeseed sowing has slowed to 862,200ha down from over 1Mha last year. Sowing is ongoing in all Ukrainian regions. 

The Rosario Grain Exchange forecasts Argentina’s 2024-25 grains and oilseeds production to reach 143.2Mt, up 9pc year on year (assuming normal weather conditions), including soybeans at 52.6Mt (50Mt previous year), maize at 52Mt (49.5Mt), wheat at 20.4Mt (14.5Mt), barley at 5.2Mt, sorghum at 3.2Mt and sunflowerseed at 4.2Mt. At this level combined exports could rise to a four-year high of 101.5Mt (87.9Mt). Total soybean acreage could be up 8pc year on year, with corn area likely down 21pc, as farmers respond to last year’s challenges with climate and disease. Wheat area is forecast at 6.7m ha. In an alternative scenario of below average rainfall resulting in lower yields, total grains and oilseeds production would be closer to 128.8Mt. 

Crop consultant Michael Cordonnier has trimmed his US soybean yield by 0.5bu to 52.0bu/ac, noting early planted soybeans will be better yielding than those planted later due to late-summer dryness. Dr Cordonnier kept his corn yield and production forecasts unchanged and maintains a neutral to lower bias toward both crops. 

Iran’s Ag Ministry’s total wheat purchases from farmers between April and Sept are estimated at 12Mt, up 16pc year on year. 2024-25 wheat production is estimated at 15Mt. 

Thai traders reportedly tendered for 195kt of feed wheat from optional origins yesterday, for Dec-Feb shipment. 

US private exporters reported sales of 180kt of corn to Mexico during the 2024-25 marketing year.

Australia

It was another good day for canola in Western Australia yesterday with gains of between $5-10/t and $15-25/t for GM, to see bids land at $770/t and $710/t, respectively. Cereal bids were largely unchanged. 

It was a similar story in the east where canola bids gained $10-20/t for both conventional and GM seed with bids at $738/t and $694/t respectively. 

Agronomists and growers are busy assessing the extent of last week’s frost with a clearer picture likely to develop in the next few days. There has been some welcome rainfall through parts of NSW yesterday and overnight which will help maintain yield potential in some regions but totals so far have been disappointing in Vic and SA.