SRW and HRW wheats firmed almost 2pc. Canola, soy and corn mostly drifted lower.
- Chicago wheat December contract up US13.75c/bu to 739.25c/bu;
- Kansas wheat December contract up 13.25c/bu to 728.25;
- Minneapolis wheat December contract up 3.5c/bu to 911.5c;
- MATIF wheat December contract up €3.50/t to €247.50/t;
- Corn December contract was down 1c/bu to 550.75c;
- Soybeans November contract down 6.5c/bu to 1326.25c;
- Winnipeg canola November contract was down C$0.30 to $914.10;
- MATIF rapeseed November contract down €0.50/t to €576.75/t;
- US dollar index up 0.2 to 93.0;
- AUD weaker at US$0.724;
- CAD weaker at $1.268;
- EUR weaker at $1.176;
- ASX wheat September contract unchanged at A$360/t;
- ASX wheat January 2022 down $1.10/t to $343.90/t.
After two weeks of lacklustre price action wheat futures found some life. More debate around Canadian production ahead of Stat Can which is becoming a race to the bottom. USDA is sitting at 24 million tonnes (Mt) wheat production with the average trade guess at 22.6Mt. While that doesn’t seem like a massive difference, the flow on to exports in this environment is nothing but supportive.
The Philippines passed on their tender for 168,000t of Sep/Oct wheat and then promptly re-tendered for 60,000t. In what is normally a difficult slot, let alone with the freight market fun and games it is difficult to see who has the incentive or the ability to set the Filipino buyer. Obviously, at a price it is amazing what can be done but, if they are looking for Australian origin, the economics look pretty scary. Additionally, it would be close to impossible to find a shipping slot if you don’t already have one which limits the liquidity even more. Simple back of envelope calc would indicate and offer above US$340/t CandF without adding the “just in time” premium. The EU Commission cut their 2021/22 wheat production estimate from 127.7Mt to 127.2Mt which extrapolates to 30Mt of exports, slightly higher than the 27.3Mt exported last year.
China cancelled 135,000t old crop corn purchases which kept a lid on futures.
Chinese buying in new crop Australian wheat has been evident. At this time of year, volumes are debatable but, based on export relativity, Australia is priced well in front of competing origins.
Bits and pieces traded old crop through SA and along the east coast. Protein in the northern market zone continued to find a bid. Barley old crop firmed in Victorian sites for Sep/Oct.
New crop markets again were quiet. Wheat was a touch softer, barley bids were firmer by $2-4/t. Canola went for another run being up $8-10/t across the country.
Thousands of truckies entered a 24hr strike today, which will most likely affect food and fuel supplies around the country, in light of pay and conditions negotiations with logistics firm Toll Group breaking down.
A cold start in parts of SA saw some cropping areas record temperatures into the negatives. Though it may set back some flowering canola, with a large part of the SA crop later than usual, it is still a bit early for any damage.
Source: Lachstock Consulting
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