Overview of futures markets:
Lower for grains and mixed for oilseeds.
- CBOT Wheat was down -6.75c to 431.25
- Kansas wheat down -4c to 453.75c
- corn down -1.5c to 364c
- soybeans up 2c to 1013.5c
- Winnipeg canola up 2.09$C to 515.3$C
- Matif canola down -2.75€ to 410.25€
- Dow Jones up 11.439 to 20821.76
- Crude Oil down -0.43c to 54.02c
- AUD up to 0.767c
- CAD up to 1.309c, (AUDCAD 1.005)
- EUR up to 1.056c (AUDEUR 0.726)
Soybeans posted a slight gain as they tested and defied recent support levels. Export sales were lower than previous weeks, yet still on track to achieve market estimations. The market is focused on growing South American crops as well as a slowdown in Chinese buying activity.
Canola slightly higher gaining support from strength in palm oil, despite a stronger CAD.
Corn sales were below market expectations, but still well ahead of the USDA predictions. Corn COT was at 81.4k contracts vs 80.8k the week before. US corn will face competition from big South American crops once they are harvested, but the market is more focused on keeping the US export system flowing while the corn is still competitive.
Wheat came under pressure despite strong weekly export sales. Solid production prospects for Argentina and France in combination with bearish technicals encouraged selling. The latest COT in wheat is -47.1k contracts vs -60.7k contracts the week before. HRW conditions are an ongoing issue with the crop in need of moisture and the temperature variability increasing. The ruble has softened which could see some increased farmer selling this week, which may pressure export markets.
Despite the selloff wheat still has a number of issues to contend with, new crop acres and yield, a short cot position and ongoing export demand.
In Australia the outlook for winter crops is not great with the BOM forecasting above average temperatures and below average rainfall from March to May in key Australian production regions. The AUD closed below .77, if this sparks a technical sell off and a downward trend, we could see good increases in local pricing.
Source: Lachstock Consulting