Daily Market Wire 27 February 2023

Lachstock Consulting, February 27, 2023

The Chicago front month wheat contracts fell 4pc on Friday. Oilseeds eased in fractions. The US dollar index gained and the Australian dollar eased one per cent.

  • Chicago wheat May 2023 contract down US28.75 cents per bushel to 721.75c/bu;
  • Kansas wheat May 2023 contract down 21.5c/bu at 835.25c/bu;
  • Minneapolis wheat May 2023 contract down 21.5c/bu to 882.5c/bu;
  • MATIF wheat May 2023 contract down €3.75/t to €280/t;
  • Black Sea wheat March 2023 contract down US$1.50/t to $298.75;
  • Corn May 2023 contract down 10c/bu to 649.25c/bu;
  • Soybeans May 2023 contract down 8c/bu to 1519.25c/bu;
  • Winnipeg canola May 2023 contract down C$3/t to $819.70/t;
  • MATIF rapeseed May 2023 contract down €2.50/t to €542/t;
  • ASX Mar 2023 wheat contract up A$2.20/t to $393.50;
  • ASX May 2023 wheat contract up A$2/t to $397;
  • ASX Mar 2023 barley contract up A$2/t to $330/t;
  • AUD dollar eased one per cent to US$0.672.


The UN overwhelmingly voted in a resolution for Russia to immediately and unconditionally withdraw from Ukraine, with 141 countries in favour, seven against and 32 abstentions, including China. 

Black Sea market analyst SovEcon revised down its estimate of Russia’s February wheat exports by 0.3Mt to 3.4Mt due to stormy weather conditions in the Black Sea. It noted slower exports in the mid-winter may temporarily alleviate pressure of Russian wheat on global wheat prices. The volume of exports in February still exceeds the five-year average of 2.5Mt and still aligns with SovEcon’s 2022-23 export forecast of 44.1Mt. 

Buenos Aires Grain Exchange reports for the week ending 23 Feb soybean crop conditions rated 40pc fair/excellent (44pc previous week, 86pc previous year). With early frosts noted in some growing areas, compounding the challenges brought about by a lengthy period of hot, dry weather, it cut the forecast for 2022-23 soybean production by a further 4.5Mt to 33.5Mt (43.3Mt BAGE previous year). It lowered the outlook for 2022-23 maize production by 3.5Mt to 41.0Mt with initial yields from the early stages of harvest falling below expectations and rated maize crops 49pc fair/excellent (55pc previous week, 74pc previous year).

US corn net sales of 823,200t were down 20pc from the previous week and 30pc from the prior 4-week average and were below market expectations of 900k. Soybean sales of 544,900t were up 20pc from the previous week, but down 18pc from the prior 4-week average and in line with expectations. Wheat net sales of 338,800t were up 62pc from the previous week and 39pc from the prior 4-week average and slightly higher than the 325k expected.

Agribusiness consultancy AgRural estimated more than half of Brazil’s 2022-23 secondary (safrinha) maize crops would be planted outside optimal window, potentially leaving fields susceptible to frost damage. 

FranceAgriMer, the French national establishment for agriculture and sea products, reported at 20 Feb, the 2023-24 common wheat crop rated at 95pc good/excellent (93pc previous week, 93pc previous year) and winter barley at 94pc (92pc, 92pc). Spring barley planting was 80pc complete (58pc, 28pc). 

Iraq has reportedly purchased 250,000t of wheat from Australia, at US$428/t c&f.

Jordan’s state grains buyer reportedly seeks 120,000t of milling wheat from optional origins for Aug shipment. Also seeks 120,000t of feed barley, also from optional origins, for Jun-July shipment. 


Local markets rounded out the week softer in oilseeds and unchanged in cereals. Whippy offshore futures prices caused some erratic movements locally in Australian canola track values. From a top price close to $765/t track east coast, by the end of the week it was $740/t. 

The delivered market felt some pressure last week with reports of rail efficiency improving, resulting in the delivered market squeezing the track-to-delivered spread. 

There is nothing on the forecast for the next four days which will progress of the sorghum harvest. The 8-day forecast is also looking relatively dry with less than 5mm expected across the entire cropping belt.


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