Markets

Daily Market Wire 27 January 2022

Lachstock Consulting, January 27, 2022

Wheat futures fell 2-3 per cent in overnight trading, while corn firmed 1pc and the oilseeds complex gained 2pc.

  • Chicago wheat March contract down US23cents per bushel to 795c/bu;
  • Kansas wheat March contract down 18.75c/bu to 815.75c/bu;
  • Minneapolis wheat March down 31c/bu to 916.25c/bu;
  • MATIF wheat March contract down €9.50/t to €281.25/t;
  • Corn March contract up 7c/bu to 627c/bu;
  • Soybeans March contract up 32.75c/bu to 1440c/bu
  • Winnipeg canola March 2022 contract up C$2.30/t to $997.50/t;
  • MATIF rapeseed February 2022 contract up €8.50/t to €723.75/t;
  • ASX March 2022 wheat contract unchanged at A$370/t.
  • ASX Jan 2023 wheat contract up $1/t to $371/t.
  • AUD dollar weaker at US$0.711.

International

In other markets, Black Sea wheat was down US$7.75/t, soybean oil and meal were both up 2pc. The Malaysian palm oil price continues to press new highs, adding another 1pc, now a 28pc increase since December 2021.

Wheat markets are showing just how sensitive they are to rumblings out of the Black Sea. With tensions easing slightly, the market went about removing some risk premium. The potential impacts of an escalation are debatable. Given where the majority of troops are it is conceivable that even after Russians cross a border, exports could continue

The United States has given Moscow its written response aimed at deterring a Russian invasion of Ukraine, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken announced Wednesday. Blinken said the US response to Russia “sets out a serious diplomatic path forward should Russia choose it,” telling reporters Wednesday that he expects to have a follow-up discussion with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov in the coming days now that the document has been received in Moscow.

Soybeans are in the heart of a South American weather market. The focus has shifted slightly from Argentina to Brazil, with the Mato Grosso Do Sul (MGDS) state agency indicating that yields would fall 20pc from an earlier estimate of 62.84 bags per hectare to 50.5 bags/ha. Most have assumed that the weather has not been that bad in MGDS so this added to the bullish sentiment

Australia

Wheat markets continued to find a find a bid on Tuesday as the market firmed by A$3-$4/t. We saw more liquidity trade along the east coast, and depot H2 wheat in Victoria and South Australia is still in demand for protein.

The shipping stem for wheat is holding firm at 2.4 million tonnes (Mt) in January and pushing north of 2Mt for February. It is still unable to hit 900,000t in WA, let alone the 1Mt we had been targeting.

Barley gained a few dollars in Western Australia as we see its stem build up to 660,000t for January now, and looking similar on the line-ups for February

Canola markets remain steady this week as buyers feel comfortable with coverage levels for the nearby. January canola line-ups are flat at 730,000t, and February continues to build, with another 200,000t added this week, taking it to 570,000t for the month

Thunderstorm activity pushed through South Australia again yesterday and overnight with more rain on the Eyre and Yorke peninsulas, and decent falls in the state’s South East.

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