Mixed for grains and oilseeds.
- CBOT wheat down -7.5c to 483c,
- Kansas wheat down -12c to 475.5c,
- Corn up 1.75c to 361.25c,
- Soybean down -7c to 873c,
- Winnipeg canola down -1.79$C to 521.5$C, and
- Matif canola up 2€ to 351.5€.
- The Dow Jones up 30.31 to 24283.11,
- Crude Oil up 2.60c to $US70.68 per barrel,
- AUD down to 0.739c,
- CAD up to 1.33c, (AUDCAD 0.982) and the
- EUR down to 1.164c (AUDEUR 0.634).
Wheat was softer again, forging its lowest close since February.
The market touched the lows reached last week but found some support.
Implied volatility in Sep Soft Red Winter (SRW) went out at 26.09pc.
The technical picture is looking quite grim with a close below current levels suggesting a push to January lows, down 30 cents.
Hard Red Winter (HRW) was hit the hardest with it now trading well below SRW. Structure is the issue with a long fund position still available for exploitation.
USDA report out this Friday which will publish June 1 stocks as well as updated US acreage projections. The market is expecting wheat acres at 47.2 million which is below the USDA’s March estimate, but still 1 million acres ahead of last year.
Egypt buying agency, GASC, purchased 2 cargoes of Russian wheat at US$202/t free on board (FOB) for August shipment.
Corn found some mild support from increased hot temperatures with high winds in the US over the next 14 days.
The market is expecting June stocks at 5.27 million bushels and US acres at 88.4 million in Friday’s USDA report.
Corn needs a US weather story and more certainty around trade before the positive global balance sheet can be priced in.
Soybeans finished lower, in a mild session that presented a low trading range.
Soymeal was down $0.70/t, while soy oil was down 2 points.
Crude oil was up, supported by the latest US intervention which was to pressure its allies to boycott Iranian oil purchases.
The market continues to be dominated by macro order flow, driven by global trade uncertainty.
The market is expecting June 1 US stocks at 1.204 million bushels and acres at 89.7 million in Friday’s USDA report.
Canola followed beans lower, but sellers were reluctant with reports of yield damage in the prairies reducing new crop grower selling.
The market in Australia was very quiet yesterday, with consumers and traders reluctant to make any purchases given the 50-100 mm which was forecast in NNSW and SQLD.
The updated forecast has reduced in volume and coverage and is now suggesting 15mm in NNSW and 15-25mm in Southern QLD.
CQ received some decent rainfall overnight, but nothing significant in SQLD.
If this forecast disappoints then flat price should return to strong and supported.
The WA forecast is looking at 25-50mm with decent coverage which will go a long way in improving our export competitiveness.
Source: Lachstock Consulting
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