Grain and oilseeds futures closed firmer on Monday;
- Chicago wheat September contract was up 6.5c/bu to 546.5;
- Kansas wheat September contract was up 3.75c/bu to 482;
- Minneapolis wheat September contract up 2.5c/bu to 559.5;
- MATIF wheat September contract up €2.75/t to €182.75
- MATIF rapeseed August contract was down €4.50/t at €365.50
- Winnipeg canola November contract down $C9/t to $C456.10
- Corn September contract down 3.5c/bu to 449.5;
- Soybeans November contract down 8.25c/bu to 918.25;
- Crude oil August contract up US$1.55/barrel to $59.38
- Dow Jones down 11.40 to 26,536.82
- AUD up to 0.6993
- CAD up to 1.313
- EUR down to 1.1359
US market seemed to care more about the heat in Europe than Matif did today – Wheat picked up 6 and a quarter cents on Chicago to 546.5¢ (U), KC +3.75¢ to 482¢(U), Minny up two and a half to 559.5¢, and Matif was off ¾€ to 182 ¾€ on the earlier close. Corn gave up 3.75¢ as beans moved down 9 ¼¢ to 889 ¾¢. Winnipeg continued to melt down, giving up another $2.3 to $453.8 and Matif rapeseed was off ¾€ to 365.5€. Brent spiked a buck thirty to $66.5 on the ongoing political mess in the Middle East, while WTI gave up 22¢ to $59.2/barrel and the DOW was off 11 points. Headlines that a China/US trade deal was “90pc complete” have been mostly disregarded – the market has heard similar reports many times in the past year. US President Trump and China’s Xi will meet on Friday – so more headlines are likely. A reminder that markets will be watching the US acreage and stocks reports next Friday night (June 28th) – please keep in mind the potential for volatility around this report if you have positions on the board.
Northern hemisphere news
As the market looks towards Friday’s acreage report, StatsCanada released their updated crop acreage estimates today – calling canola down nearly two million acres from 2018 and spring wheat up 1.4 million. These did diverge from “survey” estimates that penciled a higher wheat crop and lower canola, but in general these were not seen as significant numbers amid the ongoing weather markets (yield questions) and anticipation of the USDA reports. Survey results on those reports suggest the market is looking for a corn crop in the 86 million acre range, and beans near 84 million – some 6 million acres lower than the initially published intentions back in March on corn. There are many ongoing questions about the situation in the midwest though, and this Friday’s report will come nowhere close to solving all of them. Meanwhile, over in Russia, a crop tour run by AgriTel has estimated the wheat crop there at 81.7 million tonnes – that’s well above some of the more pessimistic forecasts that have been coming out recently (into the low/mid 70s amid the hot weather conditions). We do note that their crop tour was some two weeks prior though, and the situation has shifted in recent weeks. Similarly, the heat in the EU is being met with many denials of risk given the maturity – although markets are still concerned.
Rains have been moving into WA since late yesterday, with beautiful showers in the 15+mm range across the majority of the central and northern wheat belt. The south-west and western edges of the lower Great Southern could use better coverage, but there is still some chance for a bit of fill in on the radar. We’re still watching the storm track forecasts across the bight – latest runs have cut back the moisture chances for much of the Eyre Peninsula, northern SA, and the edge of the Mallee region while holding showers for the eastern side of the Riverina. Anything that falls will be well appreciated in the southern/central parts of NSW, but crops will need more than the current forecast – and we don’t yet have a second storm to follow up on the longer term model maps..