MATIF wheat spiked 5pc higher early, on talk about Russia, dragging all markets upward on Friday.
- Chicago wheat May 2023 contract up US26.5 cents per bushel to 688.5c/bu;
- Kansas wheat May 2023 contract up 28.25c/bu to 848c/bu;
- Minneapolis wheat May 2023 up 16.25c/bu to 857.5c/bu;
- MATIF wheat May 2023 up €14.25/t to €259.25/t;
- Black Sea wheat May 2023 up US$3/t to $287.25/t;
- Corn May 2023 contract up 11.25c/bu to 643c/bu;
- Soybeans May 2023 contract up 8.75c/bu to 1428.25c/bu;
- Winnipeg canola May 2023 contract up C$8.20/t to $743.40/t;
- MATIF rapeseed May 2023 contract up €20.75/t to €457/t;
- ASX May 2023 wheat contract down A$5/t to $381/t;
- ASX January 2024 wheat contract down A$1/t to $389/t;
- ASX January 2024 barley contract unchanged at A$339.20/t;
- AUD dollar eased 40 points to US$0.6645
Markets rallied on the back of a Russian newspaper report that Russia was considering a temporary halt on wheat and sunflower exports after a sharp drop in global prices in recent weeks. It cited two sources who attended a government meeting. The newspaper said Russia’s Ag Ministry would meet industry representatives soon to discuss the idea of a temporary curb on exports.
Then on Friday “two sources familiar with the matter” told Reuters that Russia had no plans to halt wheat exports but wanted exporters to ensure prices paid to farmers were high enough to cover average production costs. They said this would mean keeping export prices for wheat at or above $275 to $280 per tonne.
These reports came on the back of Russia saying earlier in the week it would look to more than triple its purchases of grain for the state reserve fund from 3Mt to 10Mt.
According to Lloyd’s of London, ships carrying cargoes from Ukraine’s three Black Sea ports continued to be insured, but the shorter renewal term raises concerns over forward shipments beyond the 60-day period. A Lloyd’s official told Reuters “There is clearly underlying risk that if events change and somebody wanted to sink a ship to make a point, that clearly our appetite for continuing with those kind of risks might change.”
Ukraine Infrastructure Minister Oleksandr Kubrakov underlined his country’s agreement with the UN and Turkey that the Black Sea Grain Initiative was for 120 days amid uncertainty surrounding the deal’s duration.
Although the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange left soybean production estimate unchanged at 25Mt (43.3Mt previous year), they noted that as yields from very early fieldwork (less than 1pc done) are coming in below expectations, a further downgrade to crop expectations is likely. As with soybeans, while the production outlook for maize is unchanged from the prior week, at 36Mt (52Mt previous year), the forecast could be cut further. Harvesting was estimated to be around 5pc complete.
FranceAgriMer’s rating of France’s soft-wheat crop in good/excellent condition declined 1pc last week to 94pc (92pc previous year). Winter barley at 93pc (92pc previous week, 89pc previous year) and spring barley at 99pc (99pc previous week, 93pc previous year).
US Private exporters reported sales of another 204,000t corn for delivery to China during the 2022-23 marketing year, taking the total to 2.75Mt over the last 10 days.
The Taiwan Flour Millers’ Association reportedly purchased 56,300t milling wheat from the United States in a tender on Friday which included DNS (14.5pc min. protein content) at US$355.56/t fob, HRW (12.5pc) at $357.05/t fob and soft white wheat (8.5pc-10.0pc) at $287.11/t fob. Freight costs set at $33.99/t.
South Korean traders reportedly purchased 67,000t feed wheat at $299.90/t c&f for Sep shipment. The grain is expected to be sourced from Black Sea origins.
Local prices finished the week down across the board, in what was a tough week in the markets. Bids were very hard to draw out by the end of the week with a lot of buyers just stepping out of the eastern states market. The only market that seems to have held up is WA wheat, where ASW1 values across the port zones held around $350-360/t level.
More rain is forecast this week after decent totals received last week across WA, eastern Vic, NSW and parts of southern Qld. There is another 10-50mm pencilled in for Qld, NSW and Vic.
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