Markets

Daily Market Wire 27 May 2021

Lachstock Consulting, May 27, 2021

Grain prices mostly were lower overnight, though corn, having printed a low of 602.75c/bu rallied strongly to close at 624.5usc/bu. Soybean Meals eased USD$2.2/st while oil fell 1.07usc/lb. July soybean meals low point last night represents a fall of USD$78/st from the 12th of May high print. Dalian Corn managed a small up, keeping it in the middle of the yearly trading range. The Dow was 11 points higher, crude was down 10usc/bbl and the Aussie was trading at 0.77380.

  • Chicago wheat July contract down US8c/bu to 648.5c;
  • Kansas wheat July contract down 5.75c/bu to 598.75c;
  • Minneapolis wheat July contract down 2c/bu to 680.75c;
  • MATIF wheat September contract up €0.75/t to €206/t;
  • Corn July contract up 4.25c/bu to 624.5c;
  • Soybeans July contract down 8.25c/bu to 1503.5c;
  • Winnipeg canola July contract down C$15.70/t to $862.30;
  • MATIF rapeseed August contract down €6.50/t to €501.50/t;
  • US dollar index up 0.4 to 90.1;
  • AUD weaker at US$0.773;
  • CAD weaker at $1.214;
  • EUR weaker at $1.218;
  • ASX wheat July contract down A$4/t to $299/t;
  • ASX wheat January 2022 down $1.70/t to $305.30/t.

International

Corn started the session heavily offered on rumours that China was going to cancel some old crop purchases. To say the market is twitchy to China news would be an understatement.
US ethanol stockpiles declined to 18.98 million barrels for the week ending May 21, the first time below 19mba since December 2016, according to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) latest report, released this morning.
Several grain ships were stranded in the Argentina’s Rosario area, the country’s largest agricultural hub, on Wednesday as marine workers demanding access to COVID-19 vaccines began a 48-hour walkout which began at midnight. The workers said the measure was because of COVID-19 contagions and deaths in the industry and for “the failure of all the efforts we have been making before different national authorities” to take priority to be vaccinated. Argentina exports the most soybean oil and flour in the world, as well as the third-most maize. Agricultural and agro-industrial items account for almost 80pc of the country’s exports.
There’s increased talk of damage due to excessive moisture throughout the HRW belt. With harvest imminent, 10-day forecasts will become increasingly important given most traders’ balance sheets are assuming record HRW production.

Australia

Bids pulled back again locally with the softer offshore futures combing with rains across parts of the east coast. Basis values are holding ground in Victoria as much of the Mallee region is still searching for the next rain.
Some new crop grower selling liquidity was seen off the back of the rains but, by and large, the view is most of the grower sellers have fired their bullets thus far, reducing the size of the pie of willing sellers.
Old crop barley is the exception to the rule in Victoria where new exports sales prompted a renewed wave of bidding appetite for deliveries though till September.
WA wheat/barley spread has gone from discount $60/t to discount $35/t in last few weeks for new crop, creating a chance for growers with good establishment to participate in forward sales.

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