Markets

Daily Market Wire 27 November 2023

Lachstock Consulting, November 27, 2023

Friday offshore markets eased. 

  • Chicago December wheat down 7c/bu to US548.75c/bu;
  • Kansas December wheat down 12.5c/bu to 602c/bu;
  • Minneapolis Dec wheat down 14c/bu to 696.75c/bu;
  • MATIF wheat Dec down €3/t to €219/t;
  • Black Sea wheat futures has not quoted since 11 August;
  • Corn December down 4.5c/bu to 494.5c/bu;
  • Soybeans May 2024 down 25.25c/bu to 1362c/bu;
  • Winnipeg canola May 2024 down C$1.50/t to C$703.70/t;
  • MATIF rapeseed May 2024 up €1.25/t to €442.75/t;
  • ASX January 2024 wheat up A$1.50/t to $390/t;
  • ASX January 2024 barley down A$2.50/t to $325/t;
  • AUD dollar up 28 points to  US$0.6586.

International

Buenos Aires Grain Exchange reports that for the week ending 22 Nov, wheat harvest was 26pc complete (12pc previous year), with conditions rated 64pc fair/excellent (56pc previous week, 48pc previous year). Average yields were seen at 1.8t/ha, exceeding earlier expectations. Production maintained at 14.7MT. Maize planting was 26pc complete (24pc previous year), with conditions rated 96pc fair/excellent (94pc, 75pc). Soybean planting was 35pc complete (18pc, 19pc), with weekly advances most pronounced in northern and southern regions. While some isolated incidents of replanting were reported, overall emergence was good.

Argentina’s Ag. Ministry estimates October soybean crush at 1.9MT (2.9MT previous year), with cumulative 2023 (Jan/Dec) volumes at 23.3MT (32.2MT). Cumulative soymeal production estimated at 16.9MT (23.4MT previous year). 

Reuters reports that India’s wheat planting is expected to remain stagnant despite a rally in prices to near record highs, as lower soil moisture prompts farmers in some areas to switch to less water-intensive crops. Limited planting area, along with the threat of higher-than-normal first-quarter temperatures curbing yields, could compel the world’s second-biggest wheat producer to maintain its export ban or even force it to resort to imports. Farmers in the country had planted wheat on 8.6 million hectares as of 17 Nov, down nearly 5.5pc from a year earlier. 

Chinese importers reportedly purchased 66kt of feed corn from Ukraine this week, at $248/t c&f for December shipment to South China. 

Tunisia’s state grains agency purchased 100kt of milling wheat from optional origins, at $278.98/t c&f, and 75kt of feed barley, also from optional origins, at $227.93/t c&f, Dec/Jan shipment

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Australia

Friday’s ASX wheat firmed slightly as wet weather caused some concern around the quality profile. Most harvest activity will be pulled up until close to next week if the forecast eventuates. Quality will be watched closely after the headers start rolling again, with the expectation that falling numbers will be down overall. 
Rainfall totals for the week ending 26 November have been significant across large parts of NNSW and Qld with 50-100mm falling over the past week and isolated pockets receiving 100-20mm. Totals across southern cropping zones of NSW have been lower and more patchy with anywhere between 5-50mm. Vic and eastern SA have also seen 15-50mm with south east SA and parts of the Wimmera and Western District receiving 50-100mm. With more rainfall expected this week the timing is not great.

 

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