Markets

Daily Market Wire 27 October 2022

Lachstock Consulting, October 27, 2022

Overnight markets made mixed small moves of less than 1pc. Eastern Australian wheat gained just over 1pc. Canola/rapeseed continued to make small gains and the US dollar index fell for the fifth consecutive day.

  • Chicago wheat December contract up US5.75 cents per bushel to 840.5c/bu;
  • Kansas wheat December contract up 6.25c/bu at 940.75c/bu;
  • Minneapolis wheat December contract down 0.25c/bu to 952c/bu;
  • MATIF wheat December contract down €2.25/t to €334.25/t;
  • Black Sea wheat December contract down US$3.25/t to $321.50/t;
  • Corn December contract down 1.25c/bu to 685c/bu;
  • Soybeans November contract down 0.25c/bu to 1381.75c/bu;
  • Winnipeg canola March 2023 contract was up C$7.70/t to $880.30/t;
  • MATIF rapeseed February 2023 contract up €3/t to  €640.25/t;
  • ASX Jan 2023 wheat contract  up A$5/t to $493/t ;
  • ASX Jan 2023 barley contract unchanged at A$340/t;
  • AUD dollar firmer at US$0.650.

International

The Black Sea Grain Initiative Joint Coordination Centre has authorised a preliminary inspection of a possible mine-like object in the export corridor. The object was reported on Tuesday by a vessel transiting the corridor. Ship traffic was ‘on hold’ on Wednesday with two boats dispatched to check the area.
 The Rosario Grain Exchange said on Wednesday that Argentina’s 2022-23 wheat harvest will come in at 13.7Mt, a sharp cut from its previous forecast of 15Mt amid a protracted drought. The USDA attaché in Buenos Aires estimated 2022-23 Argentine wheat production at 15.5Mt, 2Mt lower than the October WASDE number, with exports also pegged 2Mt below the WASDE number. 2022-23 Argentine corn exports were estimated at 37.5Mt, 3.5Mt below the USDA Oct projection. 

According to Russia’s Ag Ministry, as at 24 Oct, 2022-23 wheat harvesting yielded 104.3Mt from 29.1Mha (equivalent to 99pc of planted area), with productivity at 3.6t/ha (+28pc on same period last year), barley at 24.3Mt from 7.8Mha (99pc of area), with yields at 3.1t/ha (+29pc y/y).

Current and projected water levels on the Mississippi River remain well below levels needed for normal barge flow. USDA reports that barges are being filled with 24-30pc fewer soybeans to maintain draft on the river, and that only 25 barges can be connected together on the river for movement downstream, down from the 30-40 that are normally connected. This reduces the flow of soybeans and other commodities, while increasing the per unit cost. 

South Korean millers tendered for 128kt milling wheat from the US, Australia, and Canada. 

Pakistan is seeking 0.5Mt wheat in a tender closing today, with their lowest offer believed to stand at US$373/t C&F for Nov-Dec shipment 

Algeria’s OAIC (state grains agency) purchased 80,000t milling wheat from optional origins, at about $381/t c&f for Nov/Dec shipment. 

Statistics Canada reports that September 2022 canola processing is estimated at 793,876t (+2pc on same month of previous year). Canola oil production seen at 331,683t (+27pc) and canola meal output placed at 470,097t (+3pc). 

Australia

Local markets continued to track sideways yesterday. Wheat in SA was up a couple of bucks by the end of the day and was slightly firmer in the eastern states, but still not a lot of activity on new crop. SA and eastern states canola values pulled back a fraction, following offshore weakness. Limited trade was reported.

Sporadic rain continues through the eastern states off the back of the last low pressure system. The short-term demand squeeze before new crop grain becomes available is building and will likely keep the market on its toes for the short term and the 2-4 weeks of delayed harvest will see carryover stocks eaten into.
The Bureau of Meteorology climate driver update reports that the IOD negative phase could break down rapidly before the end of the year and that La Ninã conditions may fade back to neutral by early 2023. Averages in the models used by the Bureau show La Ninã still in place in November, around thresholds in January and back into neutral territory by March. In terms of the IOD, the models say it will be around thresholds in November before being firmly in neutral territory by January. 

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