Daily Market Wire 27 September 2019

Lachstock Consulting, September 27, 2019
Markets were mixed on Thursday.
  • Chicago wheat December contract up 7 cents per bushel to 484.25c;
  • Kansas wheat December contract up 4.25c to 408.25c;
  • Minneapolis wheat December contract down 5.5c to 548.75;
  • MATIF wheat December contract up €2.25 to €173;
  • Corn December contract down 1.75c to 372.5c;
  • Soybeans November contract down 0.75c to 888.5c;
  • Winnipeg canola November contract down C$1.30 to $447.60;
  • MATIF rapeseed November contract up €1.5 to €387.25;
  • Brent crude December contract up $0.31 per barrel to $61.74;
  • Dow Jones index down 79.59 points to 26891.12 points;
  • AUD weakened to US$0.6750;
  • CAD weakened to $1.3272;
  • EUR weakened to $1.0916;

In the wheat pits Chicago settled up 7 usc/bu closing at 484.25usc/bu, Kansas was 4.25 usc/bu higher to settle at 408.25usc/bu, while Minni softened -5.5 usc/bu to go out at 548.75usc/bu. Corn fell -1.75 usc/bu to go out at 372.5usc/bu while Beans were down -0.75 usc/bu to settle at 888.5usc/bu WCE Canola softened -1.3 CAD/mt closing at 447.6CAD/mt with Matif Canola finishing higher by 1.5 Eur/mt. In outside markets the Dow Jones gained 162.94 points, Crude was down -0.04 bbl the Aussie was -0.000257 lower to settle at 0.67466, the CAD softened -0.0002 while the EUR fell -0.0022

Markets and trade

The trend was reversed overnight with Chicago and Kansas managing to make back some ground on spring wheat.

It was more of the same however from a fundamental perspective – southern hemisphere production concerns, Canadian spring wheat harvest delays and some demand popping its head up.

Saudi called a 1 million tonnes (Mt) barley tender which is generally followed by a wheat tender a week later which will be on top of the recent Egypt tender.

Corn couldn’t keep pace but shows signs of the shifting power base in grain marketing.

The grower definitely has more staying power these days, not just in the US but all over the world.

Russian values have bounced in part due to the fact the FOB price got under US$190/t and the Ruble rallied. The grower said that’s enough, thanks, and put up the shutters.

Same in corn; the US grower is only leaking out tonnes ahead of harvest proper and is restricting liquidity.

This becomes interesting when you have a large spec short already in play.

Lachstock released its latest canola estimates yesterday which peg new crop production at 1.94 Mt, down 400,000t.

This drop has created the opportunity for WA transhipments into the east coast of Australia to satisfy what is a robust crush.


Locally the forecast remains dry for the next 2 weeks for most parts of Australia however some signs of scattered showers for WA and Vic on the BOM 8 day.

We have seen WX maps show some hope for rain activity in the backend for east coast but the outlook is continually changing.

Another rainfall event for SA and Vic would be very welcoming to finish crops off that have the potential.

As we quickly roll out of September we could start to see new crop come off the header towards the back end of October through northern parts of WA if we continue to see these dryer conditions and temps ramp up which is not abnormal for that time of the year.

Markets were softer across the boards yesterday in new crop values. ASX continued to push lower by $2-3/t as the selloff continues.



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