The Dow Jones Industrials Average eased one percent. Practically directionless grains and oilseeds markets moved either way in fractions.
- Chicago wheat December unchanged at US589c/bu;
- Kansas wheat December down 4c/bu to 710.5c/bu;
- Minneapolis wheat December down 2.5c/bu to 766.5c/bu;
- MATIF wheat December unchanged at €240.25/t;
- Black Sea wheat has not quoted since 11 August;
- Corn December down 1.5c/bu to 479.75c/bu;
- Soybeans May 2024 up 5.75c/bu to 1340.75c/bu;
- Winnipeg November canola up C$3.30/t to $714.20/t;
- Winnipeg May 2024 canola up C$1.10/t to $734.40/t;
- MATIF rapeseed November 2023 unchanged at €440.75/t;
- MATIF rapeseed May 2024 down €0.75/t to €462.75/t;
- ASX January 2024 wheat up A$3/t to $423/t;
- ASX January 2024 barley down A$5/t to $365/t;
- AUD dollar eased 27 points to US$0.6397
Another day, another drone strike – Russia reportedly hit Ukrainian port infrastructure and grain storage facilities in an overnight drone strike on Izmail on the Danube River.
A new marine insurance facility for Ukrainian grain exports using the country’s sea corridor has been set up in conjunction with Ukraine’s authorities, according to London based insurance broker Miller. They have partnered with maritime technology company Clearwater Dynamics to develop a war risks insurance facility for grains shipments via three ports including Chornomorsk, Odesa and Pivdennyi. The technology will enable ship tracking and real time monitoring of a vessel in transit, in port and until it exits the high-risk area.
Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada have pegged Canada’s 2023-24 wheat crop at 29.8Mt, down 13% year on year and 3.4Mt lower than the August estimate. Canola production was revised down by 1.4Mt to 17.4Mt.
Reuters reported that the lowest price offered in the Tunisia tender was believed to be $274.69/t c&f for optional-origin wheat. Participation was relatively thin with only five trading houses taking part and leading Russian grain export houses noticeably absent. “It looks like it is too difficult for Russian companies to offer in international tenders against the background of the unofficial minimum Russian export price,” one trader said. “I think there are indications the floor price is being enforced more strongly”. The lowest offer for 50,000 tonnes of animal feed barley was said to be $219.69/t c&f.
Crop consultant Michael Cordonnier lowered his US corn and soybean yield estimates, noting crops are maturing faster than normal, meaning recent rains came too late to have much benefit. Dr Cordonnier cut his corn yield by 1.5 bu. to 171.5 bu. per acre, reducing the production forecast to 14.93 billion bushels. He cut his soybean yield by 0.5 bu. to 49.0 bu. per acre, lowering his production estimate to 4.05 billion bushels.
Bangladesh’s state grains buyer seeks 50,000 tonnes of milling wheat from optional origins in an international tender (11 Oct) for shipment within 40 days of contract signing.
Local markets in the eastern states were again mostly uneventful as the production risk still grips the grower. Forecast rainfall for next week will be key to finish crops off with decent quality and there is still potential for some improved yields. WA was slightly firmer again yesterday with southern port zone landing at $425/t while the north is carrying a $10/t premium.
Line ups data show that there is currently 2.74Mt of total grain on the stem for September, up slightly from last week, including wheat at 1.61Mt, barley at 625kt, canola at 309kt and Sorghum at 194kt. We currently see around 260kt of barley destined for China in September and 178kt on the stem for Oct.