- CBOT wheat up 0.75c to 435.25c,
- Kansas wheat down 1c to 432.25c,
- Corn down 2.75c to 353.5c,
- Soybeans down 2c to 944.5c,
- Winnipeg canola down 3.30$C to 506.9$C,
- Matif canola down 1.5€ to 370.5€,
- Dow Jones up 30.26 to 21813.67,
- Crude oil up 0.43c to 47.86c,
- AUD up to 0.792c,
- CAD up to 1.247c (AUDCAD 0.988),
- EUR up to 1.194c (AUDEUR 0.663).
Wheat was mixed across the classes, with spring wheat and Soft Red Winter (SRW) wheat slightly higher. Implied volatility in Dec SRW went out at 20.75 per cent, with low volume and low trading ranges. Cash prices in Russia were stronger as harvest volume increases the cost of execution. On top of this, the ruble broke through key technical resistance in a good show of strength that could see ongoing support. This would reduce cash price liquidity there to the benefit of the global cash market. The weekly Commitment of Traders report had SRW at -96,000 vs. -74,600 contracts, Hard Red Winter at +25,200 vs. +40,100 contracts and spring wheat at +6,800 vs. +4,900 contracts. Wheat is doing everything it needs to do to cement last week’s losses as seasonal lows; demand is increasing, cash prices are rising and the fund short is increasing. We can’t ignore that world fundamentals are extremely burdensome, but this feels priced in for now, with limited potential for more bearish news.
Canola closed lower in quiet trade. Varying harvest reports continue to come in, with southern Manitoba yields better than expected, while the central and western areas remain below market ideas. Cash markets remain strong and illiquid, with no-one willing to make a big move, given the uncertainty in the crop size and the potential for an explosive market, given tight old-crop supplies.
Source: Lachstock Consulting