International

Following the conclusion of its annual crop tour ProFarmer pegged 2024-25 US corn production at 380.5Mt, lower than the USDA’s August number of 384.7Mt. Average yields are seen at 11.4t/ha, slightly below the USDA’s 11.5t/ha. Soybean production was estimated at 129Mt, higher than the USDA’s 124.9Mt, with average yields seen at 3.7t/ha compared to the USDA 3.6t/ha. 

Brazilian agricultural consultancy AgRural reported that 2024-25 first (full-season) maize plantings underway in the centre-south region were 4pc complete as at 23 August (8pc previous year), with fieldwork largely concentrated in Rio Grande do Sul. The slower start to the season was attributed to farmers taking a more cautious approach following recent mid-August frosts. Lower prices and concerns about a possible La Niña event could contribute to a 4pc drop in first crop planted area. 

Brazil’s Conab reports that as at 25 Aug, 2023-24 second (safrinha) maize crop harvest was 98pc complete (84pc previous year), with productivity below expectations due to low rainfall and leafhopper infestation during the growing season. 2024-25 wheat harvest was 9pc complete (7pc), with crops in Rio Grande do Sul developing normally despite recent frosts and irregular rains. Productivity in Paraná, Sao Paulo and Minas Gerais has been impacted by hot and dry weather, while crops in Bahia are in good condition. 

The Alberta Crop Report for the week ending 20 August noted that harvest was 8pc complete (11pc previous year), including spring wheat at 5pc (11pc), barley at 12pc (20pc) and canola harvest just started in the south. Overall crop condition ratings declined to 40pc good/excellent (44pc previous week, 43pc previous year). 

According to the Indonesian Palm Oil Association, the outlook for Indonesia’s palm oil harvest has diminished as dry weather and aging trees impact production, which will likely tighten global supply and keep prices elevated. Production is expected to be flat or as much as 5pc lower than 2023.

Jordan has reportedly purchased 60kt of wheat at US$254.50/t, first half October shipment.

US private exporters reported sales of 127,760 tonnes of corn to Mexico during the 2024-25 marketing year.

Australia

Canola values found some support in the west yesterday, with bids up A$5-$15/t for new and old crop, pushing values to around $730/t for old crop FIS and $765/t for new. Cereal values were largely steady with new crop wheat bid at $341/t and barley $311/t. Over in the east canola bids were also improved, with new crop bids around $700/t, while wheat values moved slightly lower to be bid around $317/t.

This week’s line ups data shows there is currently 1.8Mt of total grain on the stem for August, down from 1.93Mt last week. Wheat is down slightly from 1.09Mt to 1Mt, barley is unchanged at 261kt, canola is down from 392kt to 297kt, and sorghum is unchanged to 234kt. Port activity increased last week which was reflected in increased wait times across Australian ports, with 7 vessels currently loading and 7 anchored.