Daily Market Wire 28 February 2023

Lachstock Consulting, February 28, 2023

Rain helped US wheat markets continue, at least one per cent, lower. Canola, rapeseed gained in fractions.

  • Chicago wheat May 2023 contract down US11.75 cents per bushel to 710c/bu;
  • Kansas wheat May 2023 contract down 18.25c/bu at 817c/bu;
  • Minneapolis wheat May 2023 contract down 14c/bu to 868.5c/bu;
  • MATIF wheat May 2023 contract down €2/t to €278/t;
  • Black Sea wheat March 2023 contract down US$1.50/t to $297.25;
  • Corn May 2023 contract down 5.75c/bu to 643.5c/bu;
  • Soybeans May 2023 contract down 6.5c/bu to 1512.75c/bu;
  • Winnipeg canola May 2023 contract up C$4/t to $823.70/t;
  • MATIF rapeseed May 2023 contract up €0.75/t to €542.75/t;
  • ASX Mar 2023 wheat contract down A$3.30/t to $390.20;
  • ASX May 2023 wheat contract unchanged at A$397/t;
  • ASX Mar 2023 barley contract unchanged A$330/t;
  • AUD dollar gained 16 points to US$0.674.


Rainfall was received on Monday in western HRW wheat areas of the US Plains, with beneficial rains from western Kansas southward into the Texas Panhandle. The heaviest amounts were seen across eastern HRW areas. West Texas will reportedly receive some rainfall this week but will stay mostly dry over the next 10 days.

The Ukraine Ag Ministry reported at 22 Feb cumulative 2022-23 grain exports totalled 30.9Mt compared to 43.1Mt last year, including wheat at 11.0Mt (18.0Mt previous year), barley at 2.0Mt (5.6Mt previous year) and maize at 17.6Mt (19.0Mt).

Agricultural consulting agency Stratégie Grains revised up its 2023-24 rapeseed production forecast by 0.1Mt, to 19.6Mt (19.5Mt previous year). Rapeseed plants are generally in satisfactory condition, but rain was needed in western parts of the EU. The sunflowerseed production forecast was lowered by 0.1Mt, to 11.2Mt (9.0Mt previous year), with soybeans unchanged at 3.2Mt (2.5Mt). 

According to AgRural Brazil had harvested 33pc of its soybean crop by 23rd Feb, 10pc behind last year. Safrinha corn planting advanced to 55pc complete, about 8pc behind last year. AgRural says the main areas of concern with soybean harvest and safrinha corn planting are in Paraná and Mato Grosso do Sul.

Argentina’s Ag. Secretariat reported January soybean crush at 1.9Mt (2.6Mt Dec, 2.5Mt Jan last year), with soyoil output 367,320 tonnes (-27pc m/m) and soymeal at 1.3Mt (-27pc). Calendar 2022 soybean crush totalled 38.4Mt (42.4Mt previous year).

According to Food Corporation of India (FCI) chairman the 2023-24 wheat crop was in good condition, with procurement expected at between 30.0Mt and 40.0Mt. According to the director of the Indian Agricultural Research Institute (IARI) the warmer temperatures in Feb were of little cause for concern, with conditions in Mar expected to be more important for the final outcome. 


Local canola values were softer yesterday as they followed offshore movements. Wheat value was pretty much unchanged-to-slightly-softer. Sorghum track values have firmed again as harvest continues to trickle in, with offshore demand currently driving the bids. 

A cold front is bringing cold conditions to the southeast with temperatures in Victoria currently well below average for February. The front is expected to push up through NSW tomorrow and into southern Qld by Thursday. While a heatwave warning is in place for much of the WA coast from Augusta to Carnarvon including Perth. Severe heatwave conditions are expected just north of Perth from today until Thursday. 


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