Markets

Daily Market Wire 28 February 2024

Lachstock Consulting, February 28, 2024

Prices firmed.

  • Chicago May 2024 wheat up US9.5c/bu to 584.25c/bu;
  • Kansas May 2024 wheat up 9.25c/bu to 585.75c/bu;
  • Minneapolis May 2024 wheat up 9.5c/bu to 662.25c/bu;
  • MATIF wheat May 2024 up €2.25/t to €200.75/t;
  • Black Sea wheat futures has not quoted since 11 August 2023;
  • Corn May 2024 up 2c/bu to 423.5c/bu;
  • Soybeans May 2024 down 4.5c/bu to 1140.75c/bu;
  • Winnipeg canola May 2024 up C$2.80/t to $591.10/t;
  • MATIF rapeseed May 2024 up €7.50/t to €415/t;
  • ASX March 2024 wheat unchanged at A$332/t;
  • ASX May 2024 wheat unchanged at A336.30/t;
  • ASX March 2024 barley unchanged at A$298.50/t;
  • ASX May 2024 barley unchanged at A$304.50/t;
  • AUD dollar up 4 points to US$0.6544.

International

Conab Brazil reported as at 24 Feb, 2023-24 soybean harvest was 38pc complete (34pc previous year), with fieldwork most advanced in Mato Grosso despite recent rains. Elsewhere, rainfall was beneficial for fields in Rio Grande do Sul. Primary (full-season) maize planting was complete and harvest was 25pc done (17pc). Precipitation benefited late-sown crops in the key growing region of Minas Gerais. Secondary (safrinha) sowings at 59pc complete (49pc). Despite recent rainfall, seeding advanced in Mato Grosso, with most fields showing good levels of development. In Paraná, precipitation was beneficial for soils, albeit negatively impacting sowing. 

 The European Commission Feb MARS report noted contrasting conditions across much of Europe, with dryness in southern and southeast areas contrasting with significant water surpluses in northern and northeast parts. Soils were close to saturation in the Benelux countries and regions of Germany, although the situation had improved from earlier. The current conditions are seen as potentially negative for crop development, while also restricting access to fields. Ample rains have been received in Poland, the Czech Republic, western Ukraine and European Russia, with few production concerns. Rain deficits have negatively impacted winter crops in parts of Bulgaria and Romania and Spain. 

The MARS Global Outlook for North Africa reports that drought has led to crop failure, with well below average crop biomass accumulation observed in most of the main cereal-growing regions of Morocco and the north-western and central regions of Algeria. There has been a marked delay in winter crop sowing in Algeria, Tunisia and western Libya.  Favourable growing conditions have been seen in the main cereal-producing regions of Egypt. Yield forecasts for cereals in Morocco and Algeria are 15–19pc below the 5-year average, while in Tunisia, Libya and Egypt they are close (-3 pc to +3 pc) to the 5-year average. 

Reuters reports that Chinese importers are believed to have purchased a substantial volume of animal feed corn from Ukraine in the past week. The precise volume was unclear. Some traders estimated at least 240kt was bought in four 60kt lots, but some place it at more than 10 shipments all for March/May loading. It is believed that shipment was booked with Chinese vessels via the Red Sea at $227-230/mt. 

SovEcon estimates Russia’s Feb wheat export at 3.8Mt (3.6Mt January), maize at 0.6Mt (0.7Mt) and barley at 0.2Mt (0.3Mt). 

Jordan’s state grains buyer reportedly purchased 60kt of hard milling wheat from optional origins at an estimated $240/mt c&f for shipment in the first half of July.

Australia

Local markets are on repeat and there is nothing much in the way of market news to report as values/liquidity remain in the doldrums.

Domestic corn harvest is nearing with above average area planted and good growing conditions boosting production to well above average, with values converging towards wheat as the weight of supply hits the market.

The Grains Research and Development Corporation in partnership with five state government departments has announced a $42.7 million national biosecurity project. The six-year program will use state-of-the-art technology and processes to improve Australia’s ability to rapidly detect and accurately diagnose exotic pests and plant diseases, allowing identification to happen ‘near the paddock’ rather than in centralised laboratories.

 

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