Markets

Daily Market Wire 28 July 2021

Lachstock Consulting, July 28, 2021

Mixed, small moves occurred in markets overnight.

  • Chicago wheat September contract down US2.5c/bu to 674.5c;
  • Kansas wheat September contract up 2.5c/bu to 641.5c;
  • Minneapolis wheat September contract down 0.5c/bu to 878.25c;
  • MATIF wheat September contract down €1/t to €212/t;
  • Corn September contract was down 1c/bu to 548.75c;
  • Soybeans September contract up 4.5c/bu to 1367c;
  • Winnipeg canola November contract was down C$2/t to $894.40;
  • MATIF rapeseed August contract up €0.50/t to €529.25/t;
  • US dollar index down 0.1 to 92.5;
  • AUD weaker at US$0.736;
  • CAD weaker at $1.259;
  • EUR firmer at $1.182;
  • ASX wheat September contract up $5/t to A$305.50/t;
  • ASX wheat January 2022 up $1/t to $308/t.

International

Wheat markets tried to rally into the early session trading, but broke back off later in the day to see near unchanged closes – Chicago wheat ended -2.5¢, KC +2.5¢, Minny -0.5¢, and Matif was back a euro on the earlier close.  Corn was down a penny and beans +4.5¢ (Matif +0.5€, Winnipeg -$2).  Macro markets had a slight pull back on the DOW, down 86 points, and crude oil slightly weaker to $71.6 WTi / $74.5 Brent.  The AUD is trading down to 73.6¢, the CAD $1.260, and the EUR $1.182.

Coronavirus worries continue to work their way back into global markets. Resurgence of cases of the new variants in the US and ongoing protests in Europe against renewed restrictions/lockdowns are all adding to worries that the recent economic bounce may falter.

Egypt’s GASC tender saw three boats booked, two Ukrainian and one Romanian, at prices just over US$279/t C&F including semi-normal GASC costings from the deferred payment terms.  The cheapest Russian offers were about five bucks over after freight.

Weather maps for the US Corn Belt are trending slightly drier and cooler into mid-August for the central and eastern Corn Belt.  In the meantime though, parts of the western Belt are still experiencing a massive heat wave.

The first day of the US spring wheat tour on the road in North Dakota confirmed plenty of poor yields, no surprise there.  They’ll be moving through some of the worse-off areas tomorrow and the day after but, as always, the question is how poorly they will see the poor conditions.

ADM released quarterly earnings last night, up over 50pc with strong crush margins no small factor.

Some more concerns about Black Sea corn crop weather impacts are popping up, remaining very hot and dry.

Cordonnier cut his Brazilian corn production estimate by another 2 million tonnes, citing the recent frosts and potential for more damage on later crops in southern Brazil this week.

Markets were in limbo overnight with plenty of speculation still in play on row crop yields and impacts in the US, and divergent ideas about the final Russian crop, but there was little overall news to bring any significant change in market opinions/stances.

Australia

Local markets still are looking to overseas trade for direction in a quiet start to the week.  New crop ASX east coast wheat picked up a buck yesterday with a hundred contracts traded after no trade on Monday, but general new crop cash markets were quiet.

Weather maps saw a slight pull back to the forecast for WA but otherwise limited changes.

Victoria, partially, was out of COVID lockdown but more discussion emerged that NSW lockdowns may stay in place until Christmas.

 

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