Markets

Daily Market Wire 28 June 2019

Lachstock Consulting, June 28, 2019

Overnight moves on futures exchanges were small and the US dollar was a little weaker;

  • Chicago wheat September contract was up 0.25c/bu to 546.75;
  • Kansas wheat September contract was down 0.5c/bu to 481.5;
  • Minneapolis wheat September contract up 2c/bu to 561.5;
  • MATIF wheat September contract down €0.5/t to €182.25
  • MATIF rapeseed August contract was down €0.50/t at €365
  • Winnipeg canola November contract down $C1.80/t to $C452
  • Corn September contract down 3.5c/bu to 449.5;
  • Soybeans November contract down 6c/bu to 912.25;
  • Crude oil August contract up US$0.05/barrel to $59.43
  • Dow Jones down 10.24 to 26,526.58
  • AUD up to 0.7010
  • CAD up to 1.309
  • EUR up to 1.137

Market wrap

Quiet markets on Chicago overnight in the lead up to Friday’s reports – Chicago wheat closed down a quarter of a cent to 546.75¢, KC down ¾ to 481.5¢, Minny +2¢ to 561.5¢, and Matif was off half a euro to 182.25€.  Corn was off 4 ¼¢ to 445.75¢ while beans gave up six cents to 893.75¢ (Winnipeg -$1.8 to $452, Matif -1/2€ to 365€).  Crude oil traded mostly steady, closing down ten cents on WTI to $59.3 (Brent down 16¢ to $66.5), and the DOW was off ten points.  The AUD continued to strength slightly to 70.1¢ while the CAD is slightly stronger to $1.309 and the EUR unchanged at $1.137.  Markets are no longer nearly as positive about China/US trade talks, with news reports suggesting that China is effectively demanding that the US concede on all points.

Heavy rains are still on the forecast maps for much of the western corn belt into later next week, but warmer than normal temperatures are being seen as supportive to the crop by many.  Acreage is still an open question – average surveyed expectations for this Friday’s report are in the 86-million-acre range, but there are few with any significant confidence in where the figure will end up.  Domestic US corn basis remains firm amid the new season concerns, and with additional support from slow old crop sales (despite the firming in basis and flat price).  Amid the questions over Chinese meat demand, Lachstock notes that the quarterly US hog report showed hog inventories up 3.6pc (vs ideas sub-3pc) .  Export sales were also out, with wheat sales at 612,000t above ideas for sub 500,000t – supported by large sales to the Philippines and Central America.  Corn and beans sales were on the lower end of expectations though, with net (old season + new season) sales at 405,000t for corn, 488,000t for beans (including a Chinese boat switched from unknown, and a new crop Chinese boat).

On the global side, Saudi’s wheat tender (offers due tonight) for 715,000t (Sept/Oct/Nov) should price basis EU execution.  We also note that there is some moisture on the forecast for parts of the BSEA (mostly southern Russia) into the weekend, and chances for cooler temperatures.  Europe continues to cook, though the worst heat into next week is set for more southern parts of France/Spain – where the crop is already at the verge of harvest.
A reminder that markets will be watching the US acreage and stocks reports this Friday night (June 28th)  – please keep in mind the potential for volatility around this report if you have positions on the board..

Australia

The rain system moving across the Great Australian Bight will push into the South East of SA and western Victoria later tomorrow.  Coverage maps are still not great, with only 5-10 mm forecast for most of the Eyre Peninsula, Yorke Peninsula, and SA Mallee – but improving into central Victoria.  There’s also another storm set to move into WA into next week, with chances of 15-20+ mm.  With no relief in site for central and northern SA though, crops are rapidly deteriorating – we’ve got another week or so for most fields before the go “past the brink”, but the radar is dry as a bone – and looks set to drive some large yield losses.

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