Markets

Daily Market Wire 28 June 2022

Lachstock Consulting, June 28, 2022

Wheat markets fell another 2pc, and corn closed 3pc lower. Canola gained 2pc and rapeseed eased 1pc. Brent crude gained 2pc. Soymeal and soyoil gained about 1pc.

  • Chicago wheat September contract down US19 cents per bushel to 917.5c/bu;
  • Kansas wheat September contract down 19.5c/bu to 978.75c/bu;
  • Minneapolis wheat September contract down 20.75c/bu to 1044.5c/bu;
  • MATIF wheat September contract down €7.25/t to €350/t;
  • Black Sea wheat September contract down $4.25/t to $376.25/t;
  • Corn September contract down 21.5c/bu to 661.25c/bu;
  • Soybeans September contract up 6.25c/bu to 1452c/bu;
  • Winnipeg canola November 2022 contract up C$19.20/t to $889.40/t;
  • MATIF rapeseed November 2022 contract down €10.50/t to €681.25/t;
  • ASX July 2022 wheat contract down A$8/t to 420/t;
  • ASX Jan 2023 wheat contract down $1.50/t to $441.50/t;
  • AUD dollar unchanged at US$0.692.

International

Don’t stand in front of the train. The bleed continues as the market remains fixated on Russia production and subsequent export potential. Interesting set of circumstances with the G7 meeting all pointing to an increase in sanctions against Russia. The market however is firmly focused on the availability of a massive Russian crop. EU crop monitoring and yield forecasting system MARS put the Russian wheat crop at 88 million tonnes (Mt) compared with the USDA 81Mt forecast. Massive!

The US weekly crop conditions report published after the close showed mostly deteriorating conditions. Corn and beans dropped 3pc each to 67pc and 65pc respectively. This will probably be ignored given the improvement in the forecast which has rain and heat built into most of the row crop belt. Winter wheat was 41pc harvested vs 35pc average.

Egyptian buying agency GASC tendered for Aug-Oct shipment. The tender will be the first real test of Russian value and willingness to set the international buyer. Values will be watched closely. On paper, SRW is in the mix! There was a rumour today that a Russian wheat exporter had defaulted on a wheat cargo for old crop. The break in the market suggests there is zero concern that Russian wheat can get exported and will do so at extremely competitive values.

The G7 all but agreed to cap the price members will pay for Russian oil in an effort to starve the country of revenue. This comes while a Russian airstrike hit a shopping mall in the city of Kremenchuk, in central Ukraine.

Russia defaulted on its foreign debt for the first time since 1918. Moscow failed to pay around US$100m interest on two bonds after the 30-day grace period expired on Sunday. Russia is claiming that it has paid, the cheque is in the mail, saying it made payment on 27 May, but the cash is stuck in Euroclear, a settlement house in Belgium. The US is claiming this a victory facilitated by their sanctions.

There was a report Chinese censors scrubbed the internet of a speech by a senior party official indicating that the zero covid policy may last “the next 5 years”.

Australia

Local wheat and barley were a touch weaker yesterday to start the week. New crop canola recovered some ground. Bids were up $40/mt. New crop liquidity remains quiet and the old crop markets continues to eke out sufficient supply.

GrainCorp has started its recruitment drive for harvest casuals to help manage a third consecutive bumper winter crop in eastern Australia. Up to 3000 positions on weighbridges, sample stands, hoppers and in laboratories will be available at the company’s 160-plus operational sites from central Queensland through to southern Victoria. GrainCorp chief operating officer Klaus Pamminger said the company is planning for harvest while managing the ongoing export program from the last two seasons.

The forecast for showers starting this Friday across NSW and Qld will be closely watched. The heavier totals are now pushing towards the coast.

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