It will be an interesting market in the US tonight. On the one hand, the speculators cleaned up their short position – biggest buyback ever according to my records and now puts them close to neutral. On the other hand, it just keeps raining in the US. Illinois, one of the most severely affected states has another 5 inches on the way. Missouri, Kansas, and Iowa are also in for more unwanted moisture. However, the market won’t get this update until after the close so it will be all about positioning ahead of the release. 60 per cent planted seems to be the line in the sand for corn – the concern remains around the areas of planted area loss – the higher yielding states are the ones in the gun which will have a dramatic effect on national yield. Beans are almost forgotten in this discussion but are also well behind the pace needed to achieve the USDA projection. There is more time and, from a balance sheet perspective we could handle some lost production but, at some point, things start to bite. Planted area losses are relatively easy to assess – eventually. The harder one will be assessing the damage to the wheat crop. The saving grace is maybe the lateness of this year’s crop, particularly HRW. However, Texas, Oklahoma and parts of Kansas would certainly be mature and will be affected in some capacity.

Australia

Locally – like a cracked record, rains in Vic, SA and southern NSW, nothing really in the north or west, unfortunately. Tonights open will set the tone for new crop pricing and old crop still trying to find fair value