Markets

Daily Market Wire 28 May 2024

Lachstock Consulting, May 28, 2024

US markets were shut on Monday for Memorial Day public holiday. Matif wheat rallied 3 percent.

  • Chicago December 2024 wheat previous close was US739.25c/bu;
  • Kansas Dec 2024 wheat previous close was 753.25c/bu;
  • Minneapolis Dec 2024 wheat previous close was 777c/bu;
  • MATIF wheat Dec 2024 up €6.50/t to €274/t;
  • Corn Dec 2024 previous close was 488.25c/bu;
  • Soybeans Nov 2024 previous close was 1219.5c/bu;
  • Winnipeg canola Nov 2024 up C5.70/t to C$692.80/t;
  • MATIF rapeseed Nov 2024 down €1.25/t to €497.75/t;
  • ASX Jan 2025 wheat up A$1/t to $404/t;
  • ASX Jan 2025 barley unchanged at $345.50/t;
  • AUD dollar up 26 points to US$0.6654.

International

French wheat futures surged to their highest level in more than a year yesterday as concerns continued to grow over Black Sea production with weather forecasts showing persisting dry conditions. Russian Institute for Agricultural Market Studies IKAR downgraded its Russian wheat production forecast again yesterday to 81.5 million tonnes (Mt) reflecting bitter frosts. 

Severe storms were continuing to move through the eastern half of the US on Monday, after killing at least 21 people over the Memorial weekend as they moved across Texas, Oklahoma and Arkansas. Heavy rain is expected to continue in the coming days through parts of the east coast, where damage from strong winds is also possible. 

According to Argentina’s Ag. Ministry, for the week ending 23 May, 2023-24 maize harvest was 36pc complete (41pc year ago), sorghum was 36pc complete (36pc) and soybeans 77pc (81pc). 

Brazilian agricultural services provider Emater/RS reported that as at 23 May, overly wet conditions have hindered 2023-24 soybean harvest in the state of Rio Grande do Sul now estimated to be 91pc complete (96pc previous year). In addition to crop losses, harvesting costs have increased due to operations taking place on wet soils, while delivery to drying and storage facilities has been impacted. Maize harvest was estimated 92pc complete (89pc). Some fields are exhibiting a degree of deterioration, while the prevalence of fungus and ear germination are noted in unharvested fields. 

Canadian Grain Commission data shows that for the week ending 19 May, cumulative 2023-24 all-wheat exports are at 20.6Mt, including durum at 3Mt (-33pc) and other wheat at 17.6Mt (+9pc). Barley exports are 1.8Mt (-33pc) and canola 5.2Mt (-25pc). 

The German farmers’ association Deutscher Raiffeisenverband (DRV) has pegged 2024-25 total wheat production at 20.3Mt (21.5Mt previous year), including winter wheat at 19.6Mt (21.2Mt), spring wheat at 0.5Mt (0.2Mt) and durum at 0.2Mt (0.2Mt). Barley production was forecast at 11.2Mt (11Mt), including winter barley at 9.3Mt (9.6Mt) and spring at 1.9Mt (1.4m) and canola production forecast at 3.9Mt (4.2Mt). 

South Korea’s Major Feedmill Group reportedly purchased 271kt of corn at US$244.99-$246.99/t c&f + a port unloading charge of $1.25-$1.50/t, for Sep/Oct arrival.

Australia

Local markets were quiet to start the week. With no CBOT for the trade to latch onto and with finally some rain on the forecast, it seemed to be enough of an excuse for most to sit in the defensive corner. The ASX Jan 25 wheat contract ended the day up $1/t at $404/t. 

At the risk of sounding like a broken record the forecast rain really needs to deliver this week, with maps building more moisture. In Western Australia the 24-hour totals to 9am today generally were less than 9mm with showers expected throughout the week. It is the second front forecast to come through on Saturday that looks more promising in terms of totals. In SA and Vic the best chances seem to be in the next 4 days, with the totals currently on the map for SA not exciting.

 

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