Daily market wire 28 Nov 2016

Lachstock Consulting November 28, 2016


A mixed and quiet session for grains and oilseeds following the Thanksgiving holiday in the US.

CBOT Wheat was down -5.75c to 395.75c, Kansas wheat down -4.25c to 411.25c, corn down -1.5c to 349.25c, soybeans up 11.75c to 1046c, Winnipeg canola up 0.8$C to 528.2$C, and Matif canola down -2.25€ to 401.75€. The Dow Jones up 68.95 to 19152.14 , Crude Oil down -2c to 45.96c, AUD up to 0.74445c, CAD down to 1.349c, (AUDCAD 1.004) and the was EUR up to 1.061c (AUDEUR 0.7012).

With no immediate fundamental support, SRW futures fell away while Matif and Minneapolis wheat rallied.
SRW was defensive with a lot of bear spreading occurring between the Jan and March contracts.Mid to high protein wheat is finding demand with HRW exports consistent. This needs to continue to help reduce excessive stocks. SRW exports are low and appear to be getting lower, another fundamentally bearish factor affecting futures.
New season winter wheat area forecasts are unchanged, temperatures have dropped and are at levels where most of the crop is dormant or entering dormancy. The market will monitor weather closely to determine potential snow cover in Dec. Any issues could spark sharp rallies, given the large number of shorts in the wheat market.China is still an active buyer of US and South America soybeans, which combined with the EPA’s mandated biofuel demand increases, is providing good fundamental support
Not a great deal of fresh news on feed grains, South Korea bought 55kmt corn. Indonesian feed millers are estimating feed wheat imports will increase to 3 mmt, it will be interesting to see whether this occurs or whether government will discourage it to support domestic corn prices.
Last week, Matif Canola traded near a two year high supported by demand increases brought forward by new US biofuel mandates and increased import demand, due to poor internal production.  Market also looking forward with harvest delays creating concerns in France and Germany.
Victorian harvest activity increasing this week, after previous delays caused by light rainfall.



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