Daily Market Wire 28 November 2022

Lachstock Consulting, November 28, 2022

Chicago Soft Red Winter wheat settled Friday down 2pc and the ASX eastern wheat slid at least another 2pc in day/night trade. Other wheats tended easier, the Dow Jones Industrials Average tended firmer and canola markets were mixed on Friday. Brent crude eased 2pc, the US dollar index marked time.

  • Chicago wheat March 2023 contract down US16.5 cents per bushel to 797/bu;
  • Kansas wheat March 2023 contract down 7.75c/bu at 912c/bu;
  • Minneapolis wheat March 2023 contract down 2.75c/bu to 949.5c/bu;
  • MATIF wheat March 2023 contract up €3.50/t to  €318.50/t;
  • Black Sea wheat March 2023 contract unchanged at US$321/t;
  • Corn March 2023 contract up 5c/bu to 671.25c/bu;
  • Soybeans March 2023 contract up 0.25c/bu to 1442.25c/bu;
  • Winnipeg canola March 2023 contract was down C$7.10/t to $805.60/t;
  • MATIF rapeseed February 2023 contract up €3.50/t to €590/t;
  • ASX Jan 2023 wheat contract settlement price was down A$4.50/t to $423.50/t and traded to $418/t after the close;
  • ASX Jan 2023 barley contract unchanged at A$327.50/t;
  • AUD dollar weaker at US$0.675.


Ukraine’s grain exports have made slower than expected progress after the Black Sea Grain Initiative was extended, with only five ships a day leaving Ukraine according to UN data. In previous weeks and months, it was up to 10 vessels per day. 

According to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, for w/e 23 Nov, wheat harvesting in Argentina was estimated at 13pc complete (32pc five-year average), conditions of the 2022-23 crop are rated at 48pc fair/excellent (91pc year ago). Good progress was noted in the northern cropping regions, but with yields seen up to 40pc below average due to earlier dryness and frosts. Harvest is also advanced in central areas, with productivity in central-northern parts of Cordoba estimated to be 36pc below average. However, recent rainfall helped to limit yield losses in parts of Santa Fe, where results are seen close to the previous season. The southern growing areas, including parts of Buenos Aires and La Pampa, continued to witness crop damage following earlier frosts, with further production downgrades possible. 

As of Wednesday, Argentine farmers had planted 19pc of expected soybean area, 20pc behind last year due to prolonged drought. “The lack of surface moisture and the absence of a short-term rainfall forecast, will continue to limit planters’ progress,” a report said. Corn planting was also delayed at 24pc done, 6.2pc behind year ago pace. 

Farmers in India have planted 15.29 million hectares of wheat as of 25 November, an increase of 10.5pc from last year, according to the farm ministry.

GASC in Egypt secured an estimated 175,000t wheat in private deals, incl. 35,000t from Ukraine for Dec shipment, and 140,000t from Russia, January shipment, with prices estimated at US$361/t c&f. 

Iraq bought 200,000t Australian wheat and 100,000t Canadian origin wheat for its strategic reserves, the trade ministry said on Thursday.
Algeria purchased at least 300,000t durum from unspecified origins estimated at $495-503/tonne C&F for Dec-Jan.

Pakistan pushed back to 30 November the end date on its tender to buy 500,000t optional origin milling wheat.

Avian flu has wiped out 50.54 million birds in the US this year, making it the country’s deadliest outbreak in history and has resulted in record-high prices for eggs and turkey meat. 


Local markets continued to feel the heat of harvest, and a clear run now, with wheat and barley markets coming off a further $5-8/t across the board on Friday. 

Wheat price fell for nearby delivery last week where bids pulled back $15-20/t.  The market continued to be surprised by the better than expected quality of wheat being harvested.

ASX eastern wheat WM January 23 fell from A$450/t on Friday 18 November to $423.50/t on 25 November daytime trade, then lower to $418/t late Friday  and to $412/t this morning.

A mostly dry couple of days on the forecast, with rain starting to build in southern Qld on Wednesday and extending into northern NSW on Thursday. The forecast is relatively dry elsewhere.



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