Markets

Daily Market Wire 28 September 2022

Lachstock Consulting, September 28, 2022

Markets firmed.

  • Chicago wheat December contract up US13.5 cents per bushel to 871.5c/bu;
  • Kansas wheat December contract up 13.75c/bu to 943.25c/bu;
  • Minneapolis wheat December contract up 12c/bu to 943.25c/bu;
  • MATIF wheat December contract up €4.25/t to €348.50/t;
  • Black Sea wheat December contract up $2.50/t to $324.50/t;
  • Corn December contract up 1.25c/bu to 667.5/bu;
  • Soybeans November contract down 3.25c/bu to 1408c/bu;
  • Winnipeg canola Nov 2022 contract up C$3.10/t to $829.10/t;
  • MATIF rapeseed November 2022 contract up €14.25/t to €602.75/t;
  • ASX Jan 2023 wheat contract up A$6/t to $436/t;
  • ASX Jan 2023 barley contract unchanged at A$316/t;
  • AUD dollar weaker at US$0.643.

International

Macro yo-yo started the US session looking for reasons to buy with commodities in general finding a bid. Some strange intra-day movements occurred which probably fall into the macro/war/who knows bucket. 

Reports this morning of several gas leaks from the Nord Stream pipelines. While the leaks don’t have immediate impact on EU gas supply as they are currently not in use, the EU gas price reacted to the news that the ocean was bubbling. The reason for the leak is not clear with many quick to assume it was the result of an attack nothing has been confirmed yet. 

With the final day of official voting in Russia’s referendum its expected that Putin will declare 15pc of the Ukraine to now be Russia – interestingly that represents around 30pc of the Ukraine’s wheat acres. It’s a pretty odd situation given the areas that fall within the referendum are not clearly defined and one of the possible outcomes once the “election” falls Russia’s way is Putin can then claim the NATO is attacking Russia. 

Ukraine is still relatively optimistic that a chunk of winter crop will be planted. So far, the Ukraine controlled areas have planted 622kha. While the Ukraine Ag Minister didn’t put an estimate out they did indicate that acres could fall from 4.6mha last year to 3.8mha this year. 

The World Bank has cut its China growth target from 5pc to 2.8pc this year. Its 2023 outlook is 4.5pc assuming there is some shift on the zero covid policy. 

Australia

Local current crop markets wheat continued to tick over yesterday. The eastern states, SA and WA were all firmer by $3-5/t over the course of the day. Demand for old crop feed wheat remains slow and steady with the odd bid popping up for small volume through October. 

Wheat was a touch softer through the trade on the bid side of new crop over the day, with ASX Jan 23 wheat remaining wide bid offer spread 428/441. Barley markets were largely unchanged. Canola grower bids were off $10-15/t with further downside seen in offshore markets. 

Weather remains relentless across most parts of Australia, as we roll into October. Growers are still getting their overcast showery weather in the south while parts of the north did see some warmer weather and sunshine yesterday, but with the forecast ramping up again for the next 8-10 days we brace ourselves for more wet weather. 

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