Daily Market Wire 28 September 2023

Lachstock Consulting, September 28, 2023

US wheat eased 2 percent. Canola firmed.

  • Chicago wheat December down US9.5c/bu to 579.5c/bu;
  • Kansas wheat December down 16c/bu to 694.5c/bu;
  • Minneapolis wheat December down 15.75c/bu to 750.75c/bu;
  • MATIF wheat December up €0.75/t to €241/t;
  • Black Sea wheat has not quoted since 11 August;
  • Corn December up 3.5c/bu to 483.25c/bu;
  • Soybeans May 2024 up 4c/bu to 1344.75c/bu;
  • Winnipeg November canola up C$11.90/t to $726.10/t;
  • Winnipeg May 2024 canola up C$8.80/t to $743.20/t;
  • MATIF rapeseed November 2023 up €11.50/t to €452.25/t;
  • MATIF rapeseed May 2024 up €12/t to €474.75/t;
  • ASX January 2024 wheat down A$0.50/t to $422.50/t;
  • ASX January 2024 barley down A$6/t to $359/t;
  • AUD dollar eased 44 points to US$0.6353


Poland’s Agriculture Minister says both Poland and Ukraine are actively engaged in dialogue and are working to establish future mechanisms while addressing emotional aspects of their trade dispute. They will meet to discuss Ukraine’s proposed licensing system, which aims to implement import licenses for corn, rapeseed, sunflower seed and wheat. Poland has urged Ukraine to withdraw its complaint to the WTO against bans imposed by Poland, Hungary and Slovakia. 

According to Ukraine’s Ag Ministry, grain exports fell to 1.75Mt this month, down from 3.67Mt a year ago. Exports have fallen 20pc from the start of season on July 1 compared with last year including 2.6Mt of corn, down 42pc, 3.16Mt of wheat, up 12pc and 603kt of barley, down 10pc. 

The Manitoba Crop Report for the week ending 26 September notes that 2023-24 harvest is 76pc complete, ahead of the five-year average of 64pc, including spring wheat at 97pc, barley at 98pc and canola at 78pc. Crops overall remain in fair to mostly good condition. 

The Brazilian national agricultural agency, Conab, reported that as at 24 Sept, the 2022-23 safrinha maize harvest was 98pc complete (100pc previous year). 2023-24 first (full-season) maize plantings were 18pc complete (19pc previous year), with fieldwork in Mato Grosso concentrated only in irrigated areas intended for seed production, while in Rio Grande do Sul recent excessive rainfall caused problems in germination, which may see some acreage switch to soybeans. Wheat harvest was 29pc complete (19pc previous year), with earlier sown crops in Rio Grande do Sul continuing to suffer from fungal disease due to excessive rains.

Egypt’s GASC purchased 120kt of Romanian wheat at $271.80/t and 50kt of Bulgarian wheat at $273.90/t both c&f for November shipment. 

Algeria’s state grains agency seeks in an international tender 90,000 tonnes of feed maize and 30,000 tonnes of feed barley for Oct/Nov shipment.


Local markets were a touch softer across the board yesterday, with values through the southern regions of the eastern cropping belt feeling the most pressure with an increasingly positive rainfall forecast showing up for the next 8-10 days. Barley values were off $7-8/t and wheat was softer by a few bucks. Liquidity still remains low from the grower on new crop, but if we can get this next rainfall event it will build a lot of confidence into stabilising production prospects. 

There is growing consensus for this crucial rainfall event next week with most models now showing decent totals (10-25mm) for central and southern NSW. Vic is in for 15-50mm with isolated pockets showing 50-100mm. Eastern SA has 10-15mm on the radar but less than 5mm for the EP and WA is looking at less than 5mm.

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