Markets retreated modestly overnight.
- Chicago wheat July contract down US10c/bu to 722.75c;
- Kansas wheat July contract down 14.75c/bu to 696.5c;
- Minneapolis wheat July contract down 15.25c/bu to 732c;
- MATIF wheat September contract down €0.75/t to €226.75/t;
- Corn July contract down 10.5c/bu to 644;
- Soybeans July contract down 5.75c/bu to 1513.75c;
- Winnipeg canola July contract down C$3.70/t to $833.40;
- MATIF rapeseed August contract down €1.50/t to €493.25/t;
- US dollar index down 0.3 to 90.6;
- AUD firmer at US$0.778;
- CAD firmer at $1.231;
- EUR firmer at $1.212;
- ASX wheat July contract down $11.50/t to $305.50/t;
- ASX wheat January 2022 down $12/t to $315/t.
Grains pulled back from the recent rally in a choppy trading session overnight, seeing Chicago close down a dime, KC -14 3/4¢, Minny -15 1/4¢, and Matif -0.75€ on the earlier close. Corn was off 10.5¢ and beans -5 3/4¢ (Matif -1.5€, Winnipeg -$3.7). On the macro side, crude oil has jumped a buck to $63.8 WTI / $67.3 Brent and the DOW gave up 165 points. The USD has weakened slightly again after the latest FOMC statements reiterated support for quantitative easing out the curve, hitting 90.6 on the dxy with the AUD at 77.8¢, the CAD $1.231, and the EUR $1.212.
The US Federal Reserve provided slightly more optimistic guidance in their FOMC statement last night, but showed no sign of slowing ongoing quantitative easing program any time soon. The FOMC will meet again in June.
Fairly quiet in agricultural news, with markets focusing on the technicals of this rally and the ongoing weather markets globally.
Weekly EIA ethanol figures had production up very slightly to 945k bpd while stocks continued to drop (off 711k) as east coast and Gulf stocks draw down, which signals likely more exports loading from the Gulf.
Rain outlooks have improved yet again for the US eastern corn belt, a widespread 2-3″ event now forecast. It should cover almost all SRW growing areas there too.
There’s still nothing on the maps for Hard Red Spring wheat areas in the US and Canada.
Meanwhile, maps for Brazilian safrinha areas remain very dry with the latest 2-week runs taking off some of the chances of moisture that had been flirting out on the curve.
The Soufflet/Invivo merger is looking like a done deal with comments from the InVivo CEO making the news that they expected to finalize the terms of the acquisition in the next two weeks.
Indications out of Algeria’s OAIC wheat tender overnight reported traded levels around US$316/t candf (old crop). If it’s confirmed it could mean there’s some non-EU wheat in the mix but still most expected to be EU loadings.
This rain event continues to build on the forecast maps, with the latest runs expanding the chances across WA to cover the more northern wheat belt too and improving outlooks on the east coast for a fairly widespread inch on the forecasts for the Wimmera and Mallee districts in Victoria and for central NSW.
Source: Lachstock Consulting