Daily Market Wire 29 April 2024

Lachstock Consulting, April 29, 2024

Hard Red Winter wheat firmed 2 percent.

  • Chicago December 2024 wheat up US3.5c/bu to 665.75c/bu
  • Kansas December 2024 wheat up 13.75c/bu to 684.5c/bu
  • Minneapolis December 2024 wheat up 6c/bu to 723.75c/bu
  • MATIF wheat December 2024 up €3/t to €240.50/t;
  • Corn December 2024 down 2.75c/bu to 473.5c/bu;
  • Soybeans November 2024 down 0.75c/bu to 1174.75c/bu;
  • Winnipeg canola November 2024 down C$2.20/t to $651.50/t
  • MATIF rapeseed November 2024 up €2.50/t to €467/t
  • ASX May 2024 wheat down A$4/t to $344/t;
  • ASX January 2025 wheat up A$4.50/t to A$372/t
  • ASX May 2024 barley unchanged at A$320/t;
  • ASX January 2025 barley up A$5/t to $335/t
  • AUD dollar up 15 points to US$0.6533.


Northern hemisphere production concerns are gaining momentum, particularly conditions for Russian, US and EU production. 

Black Sea market analyst SovEcon estimated Russian wheat exports in April are at a record-high 4.6Mt reflecting the competitiveness of Russian values. It noted that Russian wheat was priced at US$211/t fob last week, while French wheat was at $220/t. Two months ago, both Russian and French wheat were offered at the same price. 

Buenos Aires Grain Exchange reported that for the week ending 24 April Argentine 2023-24 maize harvest was 20pc complete. Yield and area losses were noted in some regions, especially in the northeast, due to a combination of disease pressure, pest infestation and adverse weather. Crop conditions rated 60pc fair/excellent (64pc previous week, 48pc previous year). Pending harvest results of later planted fields, 2023-24 production forecast is unchanged at 49.5Mt. Soybean harvest was 26pc complete (29pc, 48pc), with conditions rated 76pc fair/excellent (77pc, 39pc) with mixed results to date. Reflecting the impact of dry conditions throughout much of the growing season, lower than average yields were reported in the northwest and northeast regions, where harvest recently commenced. However, better than normal productivity was noted in core southern and northern producing areas. 2023-24 production outlook remained at 51Mt. Sorghum harvest was 28pc complete, with farmers prioritising harvesting of maize and soybeans. Productivity to date has been well above the previous season, with relatively good results noted in northern regions, despite unfavourable growing conditions. Its sorghum production estimate was maintained at 3.5Mt. 

The European Commission has cut 0.6Mt from its 2024-25 common wheat production forecast, now seen at 120.2Mt (125.6Mt). It revised its carry-in number and increased imports by 0.2Mt, to 4.5Mt (8.0Mt), leaving carry out 0.1Mt higher at 12.2Mt (20.4Mt). Barley production was trimmed by 0.1Mt, to 53.6Mt (47.5Mt), with carry out lowered by the same amount, to 8.1Mt (4.3Mt). Rapeseed production forecast was trimmed by 0.1Mt, to 19.4Mt (19.8Mt), with consumption lowered by the same amount, to 24.5Mt (24.6Mt). 

FranceAgriMer reported that as at 22 April French 2024-25 common wheat crop condition was rated 63pc good/excellent (64pc previous week, 94pc previous year), durum at 67pc (70pc, 89pc), winter barley at 66pc (67pc, 91pc), and spring barley at 73pc (63pc, 94pc). 2024-25 spring barley planting now is 100pc complete and maize at 26pc complete (37pc previous year, 51pc avg). 

Taiwan Flour Millers’ Association reportedly purchased 106,675t US milling wheat in two consignments. The first included 33,825t DNS (14.5pc protein) at US$332.89/t fob, 13,550t HRW (12.5pc) at $272.64/t fob and 6,600t SW (8.5pc-10.0pc) at $249.12/t fob, for June shipment. The second consisted of 31,950t DNS (14.5pc) at $313.07/t fob, 13,950t HRW (12.5pc) at $271.17/t fob and 6,800t SW (8.5pc-10.0pc) at $234.07/t fob, for July shipment.

Algeria’s OAIC reportedly purchased 200kt durum from Mexico, at around $395-$410/t c&f, for June shipment.


The firmer tone in local markets continued into the end of the week, helped by offshore rallies. Grower re-engagement was notable as triggers were hit after a A$40/t rally since March. Dry sowing is common now through southern New South Wales and Vic as we hit the cereal planting window. After a run of dry and warm weather, concern is starting to creep in as to when the next decent rain event will arrive. 

The 8-day forecast has very little to get excited about for Vic and SA. Southern Qld is looking at totals of less than 10mm and southern WA has 5-15mm on the radar with higher totals of up to 25mm for the far south. NSW looks to be in with the best chance this week with a widespread 10-50mm expected with the higher totals expected in the central and northern regions.


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