Daily Market Wire 29 August 2019

Lachstock Consulting, August 29, 2019
Wheat futures settled lower and oilseeds higher.
  • Chicago wheat December contract down 1.5 cents per bushel to 475.25c;
  • Kansas wheat December contract down 0.5c to 404.25c;
  • Minneapolis wheat December contract down 5.5c to 505.5c;
  • MATIF wheat December contract down €1 per tonne to €169.75;
  • Corn December contract up 4.75c to 371c;
  • Soybeans November contract up 6.5c to 865.75c;
  • Winnipeg canola November contract up C$1.50 at C$447.90;
  • MATIF rapeseed November contract up €0.75 at €379.75;
  • Brent crude October contract up $0.98 per barrel to $60.49
  • Dow Jones up 258.20 to 26036.10;
  • AUD weakened to US$0.6742
  • CAD weakened to $1.3307
  • EUR weakened to $1.1084
In the wheat pits Chicago settled down -1.5 usc/bu closing at 475.25usc/bu, Kansas was -0.5 usc/bu lower to settle at 404.25usc/bu, while Minni softened -5.6 usc/bu to go out at 505.4usc/bu. Corn gained 4.75 usc/bu to go out at 371usc/bu while Beans were up 6.5 usc/bu to settle at 865.75usc/bu WCE Canola rallied 1.5 CAD/mt closing at 447.9CAD/mt with Matif Canola finishing higher by 0.75 Eur/mt. In outside markets the Dow Jones gained 258.2 points, Crude was up 0.8 bbl the Aussie was -0.00148 lower to settle at 0.6736, the CAD rallied 0.0023 while the EUR fell -0.0012
Wash, rinse, repeat – again.
Stats Canada released their July production ideas overnight which is a survey based estimate. They will put out their final numbers in Dec and have, in the past, had some large adjustments between Aug and the final release so the market does treat this release as a work in progress. From an Australian perspective we are very interested in the canola number which Stats Can pegged at 18.45Mt which is generally below the average trade guess. The way the season has progressed suggests this estimate is more reflective of earlier conditions which, as time went on, got better. Clearly – if this estimate was reflective of the final outcome it would be supportive to the market.
In the wheat pits Stats Can came out with an all wheat number of 31.251Mt which was once again below the market ideas of 32-34Mt and under the USDA at 33.3Mt. Extrapolating the GASC numbers back to Australian export relativity and we are still in the mix when looking at Asian markets – this is a paper exercise however as there is very little trading. From a US perspective we are seeing pockets of demand and, for the most part has been ticking along okay – the HRW relativity to SRW has added some support but is not enough to force a rally. Additionally we have taken out a decent amount of the upside risk in the corn balance sheet.
Back in Australia, scattered showers swept across parts of SA enough to wet the plant with parts of the South East SA receiving 3-4mm. Swinging to the north, 9mm was recorded at Miles Qld and 4.2mm at Condamine every little drop will help those crops along. Markets firmed a fraction yesterday across the board, ASX East Coast wheat contract trading about $335-337/t. While Downs SFW1 Jan plus $400-405/t range and barley $25/t under wheat. Current crop canola continues to find ground here also firming with more buyer liquidity.


Source: Lachstock Consulting


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