International

Bloomberg is reporting that Chinese officials have asked domestic traders to buy less foreign grain as ample supplies and weaker than expected demand weigh on domestic prices. A group of importers reportedly was summoned for meetings this week and told they should halt purchases of barley and sorghum. Barley and sorghum shipments already booked would not be affected, but the new measures would likely impact arrivals from November and into the first quarter next year. It noted the majority of booked cargoes are for October and November delivery. Beijing manages imports of corn and wheat under an annual tariff rate quota system, but there is no official quota on barley and sorghum.

Statistics Canada has pegged the 2024-25 wheat crop at 34.4Mt, up 4pc year on year, barley at 7.5Mt is down 16pc and canola at 19.5Mt, is up nearly 2pc. Pre-report expectations were 35.13Mt for wheat and 19.2Mt canola. The report noted that lower than average rainfall and prolonged high temps have resulted in a decline in crop conditions from the beginning of the season, although conditions were better in some areas compared to last year. 2023-24 canola production was revised up 0.86Mt to 19.19Mt.

According to Germany’s Agriculture Ministry, wheat production is expected to fall 13pc to 18.8Mt due to poor weather, especially persistent late season rains. 

US imports of used cooking oil (UCO) from China are estimated to hit a record in the months ahead. China accounted for around 60pc of the 1Mt of UCO imported in June. Since UCO is otherwise a waste product, its carbon footprint is lower than alternative biodiesel feedstocks, such as soybean oil and canola oil. However, the EPA said it has been auditing supply chains of at least two US renewable fuel producers amid concerns of fraudulent feedstock usage. 

According to Reuters, India is considering increasing import taxes on vegoils to protect local farmers from declining oilseed prices. A proposal from the Ag Ministry is aimed at reducing imports of palm oil, soyoil and sunflower oil. Soybean prices in India currently are below the government support price and July’s vegoil imports reached 1.9Mt, the second highest on record. India imports over 70pc of its vegetable oil needs, buying palm oil mainly from Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand, while it imports soyoil and sunflower oil from Argentina, Brazil, Russia and Ukraine. 

Jordan’s state grains buyer reportedly purchased 60kt of milling wheat from optional origins, at $254.50/t c&f, for October shipment. 

US private exporters reported the sales of 264kt of soybeans to China, 100kt of corn to Colombia and 166kt of corn to Mexico, all during the 2024-25 marketing year.

Australia

Canola bids in WA found more support yesterday with a A$5-$15/t increase across the board for both nearby and new crop. Wheat also found a little support with bids up $5/t to $343/t for new crop FIS. In the east, canola bids were strong yesterday, up $10-$25/t. Cereals didn’t fare as well particularly barley which was back $2-$15/t on Tuesday’s bid.

Australian Crop Forecasters pegged 2024-25 wheat production at 31.7Mt, up 21pc year on year, barley at 11.5Mt (+8pc) and canola at 5.5Mt (-3pc). It noted wheat and barley production prospects have been boosted by above-average August rainfall in Queensland, northern New South Wales and Western Australia and tipped the upcoming sorghum crop at 2Mt, assuming average yields. Sorghum area planted could increase by 6pc year on year due to current favourable soil moisture conditions.

Australia’s monthly CPI indicator fell to 3.5pc year on year in July, down from 3.8pc in June.